Tornado Warning 13, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT MON APR 3 2000

MUCH TO DISCUSS ABOUT THE UPCOMING 12 HOURS. FIRST OF ALL IT APPEARS
THE AVN HAS THE BEST HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION COMPARED TO THE
OTHER MODELS. UNFORTUNATELY THE AVN IS ALSO THE WETTEST AND DOOMIEST
OF THE THE SOLUTIONS. EMULATED THE ETA FORECAST SOUNDING TO LOOK
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR A 337K 850MB LIFT. THE
AWIPS OUTPUT IS QUITE ALARMING FOR 18Z...PW 1.80...LI -3.3...K INDEX
36...HELICITY 268 M2/S2...MAX HAIL SIZE 2 INCHES...CAPE 796. USING
THE PRECIPITATION CALCULATOR/RICKS INDEX METHOD...POP=100%...PCPN
2.90 INCHES...POTL PCPN 6.24 INCHES FOR TEMPS BELOW 71F...FMAP 3.23
INCHES...RICKS INDEX 140...PROB SVR=20%...FORECAST GUSTS 46-56
KTS...FORECAST HAIL SIZE 0.75 INCHES(DIME SIZE)...TOR THREAT F0/F1
POSSIBLE.

WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY WITH SEVERE WORDING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE
ANY NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH BUT 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN AREA WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
TOUGH TO NAIL AS SOME WARMING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO ONSET OF THE
RAINFALL. A THERMAL BOUNDARY EXISTS FROM HATTIESBURG AREA TO BETWEEN
KBTR AND KLFT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OF EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS
MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS OF DEVELOPMENT WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF UPPER
70S IS ATTAINED DURING THE LATTER MORNING HOURS. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

NOTE: THE 430 AM CDT ISSUANCE OF NEWOFFNEW IS THE FINAL ISSUANCE
FROM THE NEW ORLEANS OFFICE. THE OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE ISSUED FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MARINE
FORECAST DIVISION AS OF THE 1030 AM CDT ISSUANCE.

MCB 76/45/60/33 9300   BTR 73/48/60/36 9300
MSY 80/55/62/42 8500   BIX 80/56/62/40 8500

.NEW...NONE.
.LA...NONE.
.MS...NONE.
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