Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CST SUN APR 2 2000

...STORMY WEATHER DEVELOPING FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

SPRING-LIKE WEATHER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SURGE NWD OVER
THE REGION. SFC DEW-POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND P.W.S GREATER
THAN 1.5 INCHES AND K-INDICES HIGHER THAN 32. SLY WINDS OF 30 KTS OR
HIGHER IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A STRONG JET WITH MAX WINDS
EXCEEDING 150 KTS SUGGEST AN INCREASING THREAT OF A FEW STORMS
BECOMING LOCALLY SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

CLASSIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ALONG WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS IS ON
TAP FOR THE REGION. LOCALLY DEVELOPED QPF SCHEMES SUGGEST 2 TO 4
INCH RAINS DUE TO TRAINING OF ECHOES OVER SAME AREA IN DEVELOPING
AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE MAINLY SRN MS AND INLAND AREAS OF ECNTRL
LA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON SPREADING OVER MORE OF THE CWA DURING
THE DAY MON. ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE SRN MS
AND ECNTRL LA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WAS INDICATING A S/W TROF MOVING ENE TOWARDS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. SCT TSTMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SERN TX SPREADING ENE
IN THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH AFTN MAX TEMPS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

TORNADO WATCH 145 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME
SWRN MS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS LATE TONIGHT AND MON AHEAD OF A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE STRONG S/W TROF DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THE H5 TROF OVER NRN
MEX EWD TNGT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE AVN
MODEL. THUS..PRECIP SHOULD END FROM THE NW MON NIGHT FASTER THAN MOS
INDICATES. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR TUE AND
WED BUT WITH WLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT ON THU AND FRI WOULD EXPECT
WARMER WEATHER AGAIN BUT STILL DRY.

MCB 73/80/59/66 4851   BTR 71/77/51/62 6951
MSY 72/81/55/63 4951   BIX 73/80/59/66 4851

.NEW...NONE.
.LA...NONE.
.MS...NONE.

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