Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
240 PM CST THU DEC 14 2000

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED DRY PUNCH MOVING
ENE THRU TEXAS AIMED AT THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
18Z SPECIAL UA INDICATED 850 MB DEWPTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOW TEENS
AND 700 MB/500 MB TEMPS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
WITH LOW LEVEL RH CONTINUING TO INCREASE (AS INDICATED BY DEWPTS IN
THE 60S EARLY THIS AFTN) AND WARMING TEMPS INSTABILITY IS CONTINUING
TO INCREASE AND SHOULD DO SO THRU THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT
NOW MOVLY EWD TOWARDS SERN/SCNTRL LA. ALSO FROM THE ETA MODEL (12Z)
A TROP FOLD WAS INDICATED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TODAY ALONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE UVV MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH ALL THIS IN MINE..WILL
INCREASE THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS ENTIRE CWA/PWA THRU EARLY
TONIGHT.  H5 TROF WILL MOVE ENE THRU THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN..ALOFT..WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER
FRONT/ASSOCIATED UPPER AIR TROF PUSHING EWD THRU THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTEED SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG MORE
LIKELY THU NIGHT AND FRI AS WARM AIR ADVCTN ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA.  ANOTHER FRONT IS INDICATED TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPAINED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. SO AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

MCB 46/56/43/63 6015    BTR 48/59/48/66 5015
MSY 53/63/53/69 6115    GPT 55/62/52/65 7114

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADZY...KPQL TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AND TIDAL LAKES.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

05

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1052 AM CST WED DEC 13 2000

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>058-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-132300-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-
ST HELENA-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1052 AM CST WED DEC 13 2000

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE COLD AIR THIS IS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET
AT THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).

LAZ059>070-132300-
LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-
LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-ST CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
1052 AM CST WED DEC 13 2000

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST WILL MOVE
TOWARDS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL PARISHES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WARM AND MOIST AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
NEAR THE COAST. THE THREAT PERIOD WILL BE FROM ABOUT 1 PM THROUGH
SUNSET.

PERSONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND IN THE LOWER
PARISHES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND BE PREPARED TO ACT IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR INCLEMENT WEATHER
IS OBSERVED IN YOUR AREA. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS SHOULD BE AWARE OF A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND RELAY
ANY PUBLIC WEATHER CALLS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SLIDELL.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET
AT THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-140300-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
224 PM CST WED DEC 13 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PARISHES
OF LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
TROPICAL AIR HAS REPLACED TO ARCTIC AIR THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
BASIN WILL MOVE EAST AT 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE TIME OF THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE THROUGH 4 PM FOR THE
GREATER BATON ROUGE AREA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...BETWEEN
4 PM AND 7 PM FOR THE NORTH SHORE PARISHES...THE GREATER NEW
ORLEANS AREA OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...MCCOMB AND TYLERTOWN
MISSISSIPPI...AND FROM 6 PM THROUGH 9 PM FOR THE LOWER PARISHES AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.

PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SHOULD
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING AND BE
PREPARED TO ACT IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED OR INCLEMENT WEATHER IS
OBSERVED.

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD STAFF
ACCORDINGLY FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. RELAY
ANY WEATHER RELATED PUBLIC CALLS OF DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SLIDELL.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET
AT THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).