Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

VERY BUSY SO WILL BE BRIEF. MODELS ALL SHOW AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ALTHOUGH ETA STRUGGLES THE WORST GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.  THE
NGM LOCATION OF RAINFALL NEXT 48 HOURS SEEMS THE BEST BUT FALLS WAY
SHORT ON AMOUNTS. WILL BE GOING CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS EXCEPT FOR
LAKE INFLUENCED SOUTH SHORE OF LOUISIANA.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POP FORECAST. FEEL THAT THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE MOVING ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRAGGLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. THIS SHOULD GIVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALSO DIMINISH THE EXCESSIVE HEAT THREAT. WILL
NOT EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY WITH THIS ZONE PACKAGE. WILL BE GOING
HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON POPS THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MCB 72/95/69/93 3635
BTR 75/93/72/92 2435
MSY 78/95/76/93 1435
GPT 77/95/77/92 3535

.NEW...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
24

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-212100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON...

A COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION IS UNFOLDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT ALREADY LINGERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A LARGE SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REACH THE UPPER 90S BY 3
PM.  THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND THE
EXCESSIVE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 45 TO 55
MPH...PERIODS OF FREQUENT LIGHTING AND PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL FROM
THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES OF ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT AREA
WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA PARISHES
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. WHILE MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS A FEW MAY BRIEFLY PULSE TO SEVERE CONDITIONS PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM CDT.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD ANTICIPATE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITHIN THEIR JURISDICTIONS. SPOTTERS MAY BE
ACTIVATED IN SOME LOCATIONS ONCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TAKES
PLACE.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEB-SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LOWER CASE).