Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

THERE IS MUCH GOING ON THIS MORNING WEATHERWISE. A SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM KSHV TO KMCB TO KMOB. LAST NIGHTS MCS
RESIDUALS SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT INTO SW
MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WAS ALSO MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NW GULF.
WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPS THIS SHOULD SPELL BETTER THAN LATELY POPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT LEFT UNQUALIFIED POPS
FOR OVERNIGHT AND DEFINITELY AGREE WITH THAT RATIONALE. WILL LEAVE
SECOND PERIOD ALONE AT THIS TIME BUT DID UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO
50 PERCENT IN MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES OF CWA...40 PERCENT SOUTHSHORE.
LEFT KBTR AREA ALONE AS THIS AREA MAY MISS OUT ON ALL FEATURES OTHER
THAN SEA BREEZE. ONE LARGE NEGATIVE TO ALL OF THIS IS THE
PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. NONETHELESS MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS RATHER PRONOUNCED AND
MODELS SUGGEST A TROP FOLD FEATURE MOVING INTO MS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

RICKS INDEX USING 348K THETAE LIFT FROM 850 MB OFF ACTUAL 12Z KSIL
SOUNDING GAVE A 95% POP...PCPN 3.63...POTL 6.58 FOR TEMPS BELOW
75F. FMAP=3.73...RICKS INDEX 115...PROB SVR 8%...FCST GUSTS 37-47
KT...FCST HAIL 0.50 (MARBLE) WITH A VIL OF 64 J/KG.

HAVE INCLUDED SOME SEVERE WORDING IN THE MS ZONES AND FLORIDA
PARISHES OF SE LA.

.NEW...NONE.
LA...HEAT ADVZY FOR PARISHES SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
MS...NONE.
24

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-212100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON...

A COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION IS UNFOLDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT ALREADY LINGERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A LARGE SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REACH THE UPPER 90S BY 3
PM.  THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND THE
EXCESSIVE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 45 TO 55
MPH...PERIODS OF FREQUENT LIGHTING AND PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL FROM
THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES OF ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT AREA
WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA PARISHES
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. WHILE MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS A FEW MAY BRIEFLY PULSE TO SEVERE CONDITIONS PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM CDT.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD ANTICIPATE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITHIN THEIR JURISDICTIONS. SPOTTERS MAY BE
ACTIVATED IN SOME LOCATIONS ONCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TAKES
PLACE.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEB-SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LOWER CASE).