Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
200 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2000

MODELS SIMILAR IN SHIFTING H5 RIDGE EAST OVER LA AND MS BY 48 HOURS.
NGM MODEL APPEARS TO FIT THIS AFTERNOON SITUATION BETTER THAN ETA OR AVN.
ETA AND AVN APPEAR TOO DRY. SATELLITE LOOP AND RADAR SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING UP ALONG WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND FRONT OF RIDGE.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN FOR FIRST PORTION OF TONIGHT.
AS RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER TOP
SHOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCE TO IMPACT AREAS OF AL AND SOUTH MS AFTER 24 HOURS.
WITH MEAN RH VALUES REMAINING IN 50-60 PERCENT CATEGORIES THROUGH 48 HOURS AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN HIGH 90S...CAN'T RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LATE AFTERNOON TSTMS EACH DAY. NO MAJOR JETS PROGGED IN ON EITHER MODEL
TO ENHANCE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO SEVERE CATEGORY.  JAN RAOB HAS COOL POCKET
WITH A -9 TEMP AT 5H AT 12Z TODAY. WITH THIS COOL POCKET DROPPING INTO H5 TROUGH
SOUTH OF JAN TO MCB LINE...POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IN MIND WHEN DRAFTING MOB ZONES AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LAKE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN HIGH 90S WITH MINS
IN OR NEAR 80...SO WILL MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUE AND INTO WED.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS ARE:

MCB 76/102/77/99 1111    BTR 77/97/77/96 1212
MSY 80/98/80/98 1212     GPT 77/98/78/97 1213

.NEW...NONE.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WED LAZ056>070
MS...NONE.

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-171700-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1000 AM CDT MON JUL 17 2000

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN MISSISIPPI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
EXCESSIVE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH FROM THE hSTRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEB-SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LOWER CASE).