Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2000

...DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...

HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC COAST BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EAST WITH MODERATE ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE N PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THE WEAK.
MODELS HAVE PORTIONS OF THE 7H RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AVN BRINGS SOME RELIEF TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
MOISTURE INCREASES E OF THE CWA AND MOVES SW AND TOUCHES COASTAL SE
LA WED MORNING....THIS IS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AND MAY WAIT UNTIL ANOTHER RUN BEFORE INTRODUCING A LARGE CHANCE OF
PCPN. TEMPS TO REMAIN THE SAME FOR MIN AND MAX. SEE NO STRONG
EVIDENCE FOR SGFNT POPS...BUT WILL KEEP SLGT CHC MON AND TUE.

WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AS IS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SE LA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE E AND BECOME CENTERED OVER AL OR GA. THIS WILL ALLOW SE
WINDS TO INCREASE THE RH AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF PCPN FROM A
SLIGHT CHC TO A CHC. MAX TEMPS SHD ALSO BE MODIFIED.

MCB 072/102/073/101 0102
BTR 076/098/077/098 0212
MSY 079/098/078/098 1212
GPT 078/098/078/096 2212

.NEW...NONE.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY LAZ056>070
MS...NONE.

17

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-170130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
521 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2000

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BRIEFLY IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BEFORE SUNSET.

A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS DROPPING INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
EXTREME EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WITH SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE EXCESSIVE AFTERNOON HEAT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 20 MPH ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF DAYLIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES AND AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...IT IS LIKELY THAT SEVERAL OF THE STORMS MAY REACH
THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH
FROM THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THE TIME OF THE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM 530 PM
THROUGH 830 PM.

IN ADDITION...MARINERS CAN EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS AS THESE
STORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE COAST WILL
LIKELY REMAIN STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WELL AFTER SUNSET.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEB-SITE ATx
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LOWER CASE).