Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
234 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2000

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CNTRD NEAR EVV WITH A WARM FNT
JUST NORTH OF THE OH RVR...THRU NRN WV AND THEN SOUTH ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE APP MTNS UNTIL EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.
A COLD FNT EXTENDS SW THRU UNO TO FSM AND THEN CONTINUES SOUTH
ACROSS ERN TX. SHRA AND TSRA COVER A LARGE AREA ACROSS NRN KY AND
NORTH OF THE FNT THRU THE GT LKS STATES.

MODELS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN PLACEMENT AND
MVMT OF THE LOW AND ASSOC FNTS. DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN PCPN AMOUNTS
AND TYPE. ETA KEEPS GOOD UPSLOPE PCPN IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF ERN KY
THRU 36HR AND THEN BRING SNOW TO THE KY MTS BY 48 HR. THE AVN IS
SIMILAR WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THRU SUN EVENING. THE NGM
ENDS ALL PCPN AT THE 36 HR MARK. ETA APPEARS OUT OF STEP WITH
VERIFICATION AND THE OTHER TWO MODELS AND ALTHOUGH THE ETA TIMING
LOOKS GOOD FEELING IS THAT IT IS TOO WET.

ETA ASIDE AS THE NGM HAS VERIFIED THE BEST WITH THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
THE LOW AND THE PCPN PATTERN...STILL FEEL THERE IS SOME TRUTH TO
THE SNOW LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE RAPID BUILD-UP OF THE ROCKY MTN
RIDGE WILL SWEEP COLD AIR FROM THE CNTRL CANADIAN PLAINS INTO THE
OH/TN RVR VALLEYS IN A SERIES OF REINFORCING SHORT WAVES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MOS TEMPS SEEM A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE AND PREFER THE COOLER FAN
NUMBERS. IN ANY CASE DON/T LOOK FOR MUCH WARMING SAT WITH NEARLY
STEADY TEMPS THRU THE DAY. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FLURRIES SUN NIGHT EVEN THO POPS ARE PRACTICALLY
NIL. IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESS TO MOVE OVER AREA LATE MON WITH A
DRAMATIC WARM-UP FOR MID WEEK. WILL FOLLOW MRF TEMPS CLOSELY
ALTHOUGH A TAD BIT UNDER AS THE MRF TENDS TO WARM TOO FAST WITH THE
COLD POOLING IN THE VALLEYS.

WORK ZONES ARE AVAILABLE IN THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL. PRELIMINARY
CCF NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...CALLS WELCOME.

CCF
LOZ EB 040/041 027/050 030 22821
JKL EB 038/040 028/049 032 22832

.JKL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THRU 19 FEB 1230 AM.
    ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR KY ZONES 044...050>052...060...104
    THRU 18 FEB 715 PM EST

DUSTY

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-190500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
600 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 58 MPH.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS PROBABLY HIGHEST BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT EST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR
SOMERSET...LONDON...AND MONTICELLO. SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DELINEATE THREAT AREAS
AND STORM ARRIVAL TIMES.

ANOTHER PROBLEM THIS EVENING IS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOME AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 HAD ALREADY PICKED UP CLOSE TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN DURING THE DAY...SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL ONLY COMPOUND THE
FLOOD SITUATION THERE.

EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDENTS...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY HAD
HEAVY RAINFALL...SHOULD AVOID LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
TONIGHT. BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED OR
A WARNING ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADIO FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

RAB