Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED WARNINGS SECTION FOR WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 AM EST THU MAR 30 2000

RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS OVER FLA HAVE REACHED THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER THE LOOP OF GA ZONES TELL A DIFFERENT STORY. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH OUR GA FA NORTH OF US HWY 82. ANOTHER
ROUND DEVELOPED OVER AL...MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL REACH OUR CWA
BEFORE MORNING.

A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE FLA PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS OUT AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. H3 STREAMLINES INDICATE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE GA
COAST INTO CENTRAL FLA. LIFTED INDICES ARE IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE AND
HELICITIES ARE AROUND 120. EXPECT PRECIP OVER GA AT FIRST THEN THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SPENDING A GREAT DEAL OF TIME AGONIZING OVER THE POPS FOR TODAY.
THERE IS A 70 PERCENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FWC AND FAN POPS. THINK
THE AVN HAS A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE INITIAL AND 06Z FEATURES
SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS FAN. CURRENT FCST OF GOOD CHANCE FOR GA AND
MOST OF FL ZONES...40 PERCENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER LOOKS GOOD. WITH
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
SECOND DAY...THEN A RETURN TO CLIMO TEMPS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

MARINE...WINDS AT GRAYS REEF FALL INTO THE SCA CRITERIA WHEREAS
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 15 KT. RECENT SFC ANALYSES SHOW A
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR
THE MORNING AND SUGGESTING AN UPGRADE TO SCA LATE.

PRELIM
AMG 82/52/77/48 5200
SSI 78/58/71/54 5300
JAX 84/57/75/52 5300
GNV 87/58/80/54 5300 28

.JAX...
GA...NONE
FL...NONE

TRABERT

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-301430-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
623 AM EST THU MAR 30 2000

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING
AND MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
WILL BE MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND ONE
OR TWO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

SPOTTERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN CASE ACTIVATION
BECOMES NECESSARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.

SANTOS