Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED WARNINGS SECTION FOR WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 AM EST THU MAR 30 2000

RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS OVER FLA HAVE REACHED THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER THE LOOP OF GA ZONES TELL A DIFFERENT STORY. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH OUR GA FA NORTH OF US HWY 82. ANOTHER
ROUND DEVELOPED OVER AL...MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL REACH OUR CWA
BEFORE MORNING.

A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE FLA PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS OUT AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. H3 STREAMLINES INDICATE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE GA
COAST INTO CENTRAL FLA. LIFTED INDICES ARE IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE AND
HELICITIES ARE AROUND 120. EXPECT PRECIP OVER GA AT FIRST THEN THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SPENDING A GREAT DEAL OF TIME AGONIZING OVER THE POPS FOR TODAY.
THERE IS A 70 PERCENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FWC AND FAN POPS. THINK
THE AVN HAS A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE INITIAL AND 06Z FEATURES
SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS FAN. CURRENT FCST OF GOOD CHANCE FOR GA AND
MOST OF FL ZONES...40 PERCENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER LOOKS GOOD. WITH
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
SECOND DAY...THEN A RETURN TO CLIMO TEMPS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

MARINE...WINDS AT GRAYS REEF FALL INTO THE SCA CRITERIA WHEREAS
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 15 KT. RECENT SFC ANALYSES SHOW A
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR
THE MORNING AND SUGGESTING AN UPGRADE TO SCA LATE.

PRELIM
AMG 82/52/77/48 5200
SSI 78/58/71/54 5300
JAX 84/57/75/52 5300
GNV 87/58/80/54 5300 28

.JAX...
GA...NONE
FL...NONE

TRABERT