Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2000

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVING SOUTH WITH A STRONG AREA OF PVA ROTATING AROUND IT
THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH HAS CONTINUED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN EXTREME SOUTH
GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA. HAVE ISSUED SEVERAL SVR WARNINGS BUT NO
REPORTS OF SEVERE WX AS OF YET. THE MESO-ETA FROM LAST NIGHT APPEARS
TO HAVE NAILED THIS NOCTURNAL EVENT.

SHORT TERM...EXPECT CURRENT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH
AFFECTING OUR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
STORMS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END.

FORECAST...AVN CONTINUES TO SPIN UP AN INTENSE LOW OFF THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AND MOVE IT NORTH...THEN NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE ETA HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND BROADER FEATURE.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AVN MAY BE ON THE RIGHT TRACK IN DEVELOPING
A CIRCULATION...BUT IS DEEPENING IT TOO FAST. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
BACK ON INCREASING THE WINDS TO SCA LEVELS...BUT INCREASE THEM TO NO
HIGHER THEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MAINLY FROM 20 TO 60 MILES OUT. ALSO
WITH UPPER LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH...WILL HAVE A CONTINUTION OF
AREAS OF PVA ROTATING AROUND LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE WETTER FAN GUIDANCE...ESP AT NIGHT.

THANKS FOR THE COORD KMLB...KCHS.

PRELIM CCF
AMG 90/71/89/70 4334
SSI 87/73/86/73 3354
JAX 90/73/89/73 4454
GNV 90/72/90/72 4454

.JAX...
.FL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...PETERSON
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WELSH

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-291600-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2000

A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES SLOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST AND SHOULD BE ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING.
WITH THIS CHANGE...CHANCES OF RIP CURRENTS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE ALONG THE BEACHES.

DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WARM MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNUSUALLY UNSTABLE.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH IN THE FLORIDA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. A LINE
OF STORMS BETWEEN GAINESVILLE AND JACKSONVILLE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD OCALA AND ST AUGUSTINE AND WILL CLEAR TO THE SOUTH BY NOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REGENERATE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS MORNING...BUT THE FLORIDA COUNTIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY.

SINCE SEVERE WEATHER IS AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE REQUESTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOFV/JAX.