Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1000 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2000

ZONES...AS THINGS ARE DEVELOPING THIS HOUR AND INTERESTING MCC IS
DROPPING SWD THRU CNTRL GA AND TWD THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA THE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER CSTL GA/GA CSTL WATERS IS ALSO DROPPING SWD.
AND THERE ARE A FEW CELLS FILLING IN IN BETWEEN. MAYBE MESO-ETA DOES
HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING ALL NIGHT DUE TO THE
VORT LOBE AND H7 VVEL BULLSEYE MOVING THRU. CURRENTLY THE ZONES SPORT
A 20-30 PCNT CHNC ALL NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
COVERAGE AND SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE.

MARINE...WILL GIVE AVN SOME CREDENCE AND GO WITH HIGHER POPS WELL
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBLEM IS AVN/MRF IS THE LAST MODEL ID
LIKE TO HANG MY HAT ON RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE 29/00 UTC
OBJECTIVE AIDS BAMM/BAMD HAVE THE LOW MOVING ESE TO SE FOR THE SHORT
TERM AND THATS WHAT IT APPEARS TO BE DOING. SO WITH A SEEMINGLY
BETTER INITIALIZATION FOR AVN HAVE COMPROMISED BY INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND ADJUSTING THE WIND DIRECTIONS TO REFLECT A
DEVELOPING LOW MOVING ABOUT 200-300 MILES OFFSHORE OF NE FL/SE GA.
ALSO HAVE ADDED THE PROVISO THAT THE LOW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
MONITORED. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ADJUST WIND SPEEDS BASED ON FUTURE
DEVELOPMENTS.

THANKS FOR THE COORD KMLB...KCHS.

.JAX...
.FL...FIRE WX WATCH TUE AFTN EXCEPT INTERIOR COUNTIES.
.GA...FIRE WX WATCH TUE AFTN

SANDRIK