Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2000

RADAR SHOWS STRONGEST CONVECTION W OF A LINE FROM OCF TO AMG. THIS
ASSOCIATED MOSTLY WITH SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SC TO CENTRAL GA
AND VORT LOBE OVER N FL. SEV TSTM WATCH FOR NRN COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM.

FORECAST...MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT DO SHOW SOME
SIGNS OF DISAGREEMENT STARTING FRI. MODELS DROP SFC TROUGH SWD
DURING THE PD WITH RIBBON OF HIGH MEAN RH EXTENDING JUST SE OF
TROUGH. SFC RIDGE S OF CWA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NEAR S FL THEN
MAKE PROGRESS NWD ON SUN. AT UPPER LEVELS...A VORT LOBE WILL BEGIN
TO DRIFT SE OVER SE GA AND MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT. MAIN AREA OF VORT ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED E OF VLD-CTY
LINE AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FARTHER E ON SAT. THINK ETA HAS
INITIALIZED BETTER WITH 18Z SFC ANALYSIS WITH THE NGM A CLOSE
SECOND. THEREFORE WILL BASE FORECAST MAINLY OFF THE ETA MODEL.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS S ALTHOUGH A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT SAT FOR SE
GA. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR COMING INTO SE GA LATE FRI AND SAT.
MESO-ETA PROGGING PW DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES BUT WITH MOD INSTABILITY
AND VORT LOBE HANGING ON OVER CENTRAL GA WILL GO CHANCE POPS.
WILL TRY GO A LITTLE BELOW MOS TEMP GUIDANCE. THANK MLB FOR
COORDINATION.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. WINDS TO REMAIN SLY AT 10-15 KT...WITH SEAS
ESTIMATED 2-3 FT BASED ON BAR PILOT REPORT AND GRAYS REEF BUOY. AXIS
OF MOISTURE OVER MARINE WATERS WILL KEEP CHANCE SHRA AND TSRA THERE.

PRELIM...
AMG 72/94/70/93 3423
SSI 75/89/74/89 3524
JAX 73/91/73/91 3636
GNV 72/90/72/91 3636 02

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.