Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2000

RADAR SHOWS STRONGEST CONVECTION W OF A LINE FROM OCF TO AMG. THIS
ASSOCIATED MOSTLY WITH SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SC TO CENTRAL GA
AND VORT LOBE OVER N FL. SEV TSTM WATCH FOR NRN COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM.

FORECAST...MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT DO SHOW SOME
SIGNS OF DISAGREEMENT STARTING FRI. MODELS DROP SFC TROUGH SWD
DURING THE PD WITH RIBBON OF HIGH MEAN RH EXTENDING JUST SE OF
TROUGH. SFC RIDGE S OF CWA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NEAR S FL THEN
MAKE PROGRESS NWD ON SUN. AT UPPER LEVELS...A VORT LOBE WILL BEGIN
TO DRIFT SE OVER SE GA AND MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT. MAIN AREA OF VORT ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED E OF VLD-CTY
LINE AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FARTHER E ON SAT. THINK ETA HAS
INITIALIZED BETTER WITH 18Z SFC ANALYSIS WITH THE NGM A CLOSE
SECOND. THEREFORE WILL BASE FORECAST MAINLY OFF THE ETA MODEL.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS S ALTHOUGH A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT SAT FOR SE
GA. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR COMING INTO SE GA LATE FRI AND SAT.
MESO-ETA PROGGING PW DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES BUT WITH MOD INSTABILITY
AND VORT LOBE HANGING ON OVER CENTRAL GA WILL GO CHANCE POPS.
WILL TRY GO A LITTLE BELOW MOS TEMP GUIDANCE. THANK MLB FOR
COORDINATION.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. WINDS TO REMAIN SLY AT 10-15 KT...WITH SEAS
ESTIMATED 2-3 FT BASED ON BAR PILOT REPORT AND GRAYS REEF BUOY. AXIS
OF MOISTURE OVER MARINE WATERS WILL KEEP CHANCE SHRA AND TSRA THERE.

PRELIM...
AMG 72/94/70/93 3423
SSI 75/89/74/89 3524
JAX 73/91/73/91 3636
GNV 72/90/72/91 3636 02

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-221630-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2000

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...
IN COMBINATION OF A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL HELP
TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
WEAK...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN SPEED AND
WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WOULD TEND TO FOCUS MOST
OF THE CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
THREATS. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF
TO ONE INCH BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 2
OR 3 INCHES. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-222130-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2000

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...
IN COMBINATION OF A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL HELP
TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
WEAK...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN SPEED AND
WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WOULD TEND TO FOCUS MOST
OF THE CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
THREATS. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF
TO ONE INCH BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 2
OR 3 INCHES. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.