Severe Thunderstorm Warning 625, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2000

A CONTINUED TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. A 500 MB LOW IS STILL
LOCATED IN GEORGIA WITH ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
AS FAR WEST OF NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME. A 16Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A POOLING OF SURFACE MOISTURE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI TO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO BE
ONGOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE NGM...ETA...AND AVN MODELS ALL KEEP THE 500 MB LOW AROUND THE
GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL THEREFORE HAVE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...MODELS ARE TRYING TO PLACE A WEAK SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS LOW COULD
BRING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALSO ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION THERE. WILL PUT
HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS IN FOR AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR RECORD LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE IN WESTERN SECTIONS. IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. WILL CONTINUE TO GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

QPF DISCUSSION: CONVECTION NOT LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH IN THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF THROUGH 12Z. MAY HAVE UP TO .10
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS...MAINLY FOR 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD WITH
RAPIDLY DECREASING AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULT TIME
FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE 500 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF MISSISSIPPI WITH
RIDGE IN VICINITY OF OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH BIG GRADIENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...
WITH MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 072/100 073/097 073  2222
MEI 074/095 073/095 073  3322

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

15

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
010400-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2000

THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION IS VERY UNSTABLE TODAY. MOISTURE HAS BEEN
LIMITED BUT THE BEST SUPPLY WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AND MAY
BECOME SEVERE OVER A VERY SHORT TIME. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS BUT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES AN EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

JANWRKLSR 000
TTAA00 KJAN DDHHMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH/COUNTY LOCATION....

0240 PM    1 SW BROOKHAVEN           MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/31/00   LINCOLN                        A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN
                                          DOWN AND SHINGLES BLOWN
                                          OFF A SCHOOL. TWO HOUSES
                                          WERE ON FIRE BY LIGHTNING.
                                          REPORTED BY LINCOLN EOC