Severe Thunderstorm Warning 628, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2000

A CONTINUED TRICKY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. A 500 MB LOW IS STILL
LOCATED IN GEORGIA WITH ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
AS FAR WEST OF NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME. A 16Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A POOLING OF SURFACE MOISTURE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI TO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO BE
ONGOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE NGM...ETA...AND AVN MODELS ALL KEEP THE 500 MB LOW AROUND THE
GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL THEREFORE HAVE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...MODELS ARE TRYING TO PLACE A WEAK SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS LOW COULD
BRING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALSO ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION THERE. WILL PUT
HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS IN FOR AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR RECORD LEVEL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE IN WESTERN SECTIONS. IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP
THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. WILL CONTINUE TO GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SECTIONS.
EXPECT THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

QPF DISCUSSION: CONVECTION NOT LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH IN THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF THROUGH 12Z. MAY HAVE UP TO .10
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS...MAINLY FOR 18Z TO 00Z PERIOD WITH
RAPIDLY DECREASING AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULT TIME
FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE 500 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF MISSISSIPPI WITH
RIDGE IN VICINITY OF OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH BIG GRADIENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...
WITH MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 072/100 073/097 073  2222
MEI 074/095 073/095 073  3322

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

15

JANWRKLSR 000
TTAA00 KJAN DDHHMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH/COUNTY LOCATION....

0240 PM    1 SW BROOKHAVEN           MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/31/00   LINCOLN                        A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN
                                          DOWN AND SHINGLES BLOWN
                                          OFF A SCHOOL. TWO HOUSES
                                          WERE ON FIRE BY LIGHTNING.
                                          REPORTED BY LINCOLN EOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
441 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH/COUNTY LOCATION....

0240 PM    4 SW BROOKHAVEN           MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/31/00   LINCOLN                        CIVIL DEFENSE REPORTS
                                          TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. TRAILER PORCH ALSO
                                          DESTROYED.

0350 PM    3 SE SUMRALL              MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/31/00   LAMAR                          MOBILE HOME FLIPPED OVER
                                          BETWEEN SUMRALL AND
                                          HATTIESBURG

0405 PM    OAK GROVE                 MS   1 INCH HAIL
08/31/00   LAMAR                          QUARTER HAIL REPORTED BY
                                          CIVIL DEFENSE

0439 PM    PETAL                     MS   .88 INCH HAIL
08/31/00   FORREST                        NICKEL HAIL REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
                                          CENTER

0440 PM    HATTIESBURG               MS   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/31/00   LAMAR                          CIVIL DEFENSE REPORTED
                                          GOLFBALL HAIL IN DOWNTOWxN