Severe Thunderstorm Warning 503, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2000

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF/SHEAR AXIS STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR OVER
THE NW CWFA. ALSO NOTED ON IMAGERY IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO. AT THE SURFACE...88D SHOWING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING SOUTH AND EAST OF SHEAR AXIS. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

BOTH THE ETA AND AVN ARE QUITE SIMILAR WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS THIS
RUN. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST LATER IN THE PD
AS 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES ITS WAY EAST OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ITS TREK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT THE CWFA DURING THE MAX DAYTIME
HEATING HOURS TOMORROW. AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY
AS SHEAR AXIS/TROF MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION.

BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AGAIN TOMORROW...WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE.
AVN AND MOS POPS ARE VERY SIMILAR...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS ALSO LOOK
GOOD...AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH...EXCEPT TO LOWER MAXS A TAD IN THE
SOUTH ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATEST CHANCES OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

QPF DISCUSSION: DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE SE HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE MEAN OVER THE NW
HALF. WITH PERTURBATIONS INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE/BOUNDARIES/AND
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL GENERALLY TREND BASIN AMOUNTS FROM ZERO
EXTREME NW DUE TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO AROUND 0.25 S/SE
AREAS PER PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDS OFF SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW (ESPECIALLY AMOUNTS/COVERAGE)...BUT
NGM/HPC BLEND LOOKS THE WAY TO GO.

IN THE EXTENDED...AFTERNOON EVENING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MAX
TE8MPS SLOWLY WARMING.

JAN 070/091/071/93 3423
MEI 071/089/071/92 3523

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
32

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
040300-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2000

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

ISOLATED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN (ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS). THIS INCLUDES AN
EXbPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.