Severe Thunderstorm Warning 501, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2000

FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE SHOWN QUITE CLEARLY ON WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING. FIRST IS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF/SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE TROF IS SOMEWHAT DRY AS COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER E. SECOND...
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE/COLD POCKET DROPPING S THROUGH E OK. LASTLY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/COLD POCKET DROPPING SE OUT OF SD.

PREFERRED ETA/AVN AS THEY HAVE INTIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND SEEM TO
HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES THE BEST. AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO FIRE ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS FIRST COLD POCKET
TRAVERSES THE CWFA DURING MAX HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN
THE SE WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND RR QUAD OF H25 50 KNOT JET
RESIDES. WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS THIS AREA WITH LOW END
OVER THE NW.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE W
FRIDAY...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH FOR A REPEAT OF TODAY AS SECOND COLD
POCKET MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA. BEST POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE SE
WHERE MOISTURE DEEPEST.

MAX TEMPS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH UPPER 80S SE TO
LOWER 90S NW AS ADVERTISED BY MOS. THESE NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE
GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT MINS AROUND 70
LOOK REASONABLE AS WELL.

QPF DISCUSSION: ONCE AGAIN EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
AVAILABILITY OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. WILL
FORECAST GREATEST QPF NUMBERS OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CWFA DURING
PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z AND VERY SMALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN .05 INCH FOR
PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z. SHOWERS DURING OTHER PERIODS WILL BE TOO
ISOLATED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF.

IN THE EXTENDED...UKMET/NOGAPS CONTINUING WITH TREND OF AVN WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL TREND PRECIP BECOMING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED IN ZONES AND TEMPS! SLOWLY WARMING.

JAN 091/070/091/070 4242
MEI 089/070/089/070 5252

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
26

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
040300-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2000

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

ISOLATED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN (ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS). THIS INCLUDES AN
EXbPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.