Severe Thunderstorm Warning 480, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2000

THIS RUN...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INITIALLY WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN...OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND
TROUGHING IN THE EAST. LATER IN THE PERIOD MODELS START TO  DIFFER
ON THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
NONE SEEM TO PICK UP ON THE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN MO THIS AM. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS THE COMPLEX TO BE WEAKENING. THIS COULD LEAVE A NICE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY RANGED FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE NORTH TO
THE MID 90S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MOS GIVES SIMILAR READINGS FOR TODAY.
PROGGED DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MID LEVEL COLD POOL TO OUR NORTH DROPS SLOWLY
SOUTH TODAY...H5 TEMPS -10 TO -12 BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. K INDICES
WILL BE AROUND 40 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS READILY FIRED ON WEDNESDAY IN EAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A MORE ACTIVE
SEABREEZE WILL PROVIDE EVEN MORE FOCUS TODAY ...SO WILL NEED TO GO
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE MOS GIVES ISOLATED.

FOR FRIDAY...MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS.
WILL STILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 95 AT  MOST PLACES. MODELS PICK UP ON A
SECOND COMPLEX FORMING OVER NEBRASKA WITH THE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. CURRENT TRACK BRINGS THE AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

24 HOUR QPF DISCUSSION: WILL PUT IN SMALL AVERAGES (LESS THAN 0.25)
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN BASINS...SIMILAR TO NCEP...BASED ON EXPECTED WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING TSTM ACTIVITY.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 096/067 095/068 2222
MEI 097/067 096/068 3222

.JRAN...
AR...NONE
LA...NONE
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
280400-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2000

AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DYING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL IN SPOTS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN (ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS). THIS INCLUDES AN
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.