Severe Thunderstorm Warning 486, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2000

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FOR THE 500 MB PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES. A 500 MB CLOSED HIGH
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA/ARIZONA BORDERS BY SATURDAY AT 12Z. A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH A TROUGH SOUTH INTO ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION VALUES AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT OR LESS POPS ACROSS THE
FA FOR FRIDAY...EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...
WILL FORECAST HIGHER POPS ON SATURDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES. FOR
SATURDAY...WILL GO ALONG WITH FMR'S POPS OF AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR
JACKSON AND WILL ALSO FORECAST 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE FA FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT INTO THE
SATURDAY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE EXPECTED PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND
COOLING OF HIGHS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS OVERALL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO AVN MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS
NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM NGM GUIDANCE...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

QPF DISCUSSION: ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL
FOCUSING MECHANISM ALONG WITH ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE DAY. DUE TO THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION...WILL ONLY GO TRACE BASIN AMOUNTS CENTRAL TO NEAR 0.10
AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH MRF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING A 500 MB TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THIS
NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH...A PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE FA.
THE FMR GUIDANCE HAS NEARLY 50 PERCENT POPS FOR JACKSON ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WHICH MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL WORD GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR DAY 3 (SUNDAY). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS
WELL...BUT WILL JUST USE CHANCE WORDING FOR THE FA AT THIS
TIME.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 068/094 070/092 1213
MEI 068/093 069/092 1213

.JAN...
AR...NONE
LA...NONE
MS...NONE.

15/05