Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT WED OCT 4 2000

STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
CEN IL WITH LOTS OF WAVES NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.  NEXT IN THE SERIES
OF MID LVL S/WV'S POISED TO THE WEST OF IL WILL MOVE ACROSS IL TNGT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERUNNING RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSRA...IS EXPECTED
TNGT AS S/WV INTENSIFIES 850H LLJ ACROSS MO INTO IL LATER THIS
EVENING.  ALL THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT HVYST PCPN BAND WILL SET
UP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TNGT THAN LAST NIGHT...AGREE WITH HPC THAT
BETWEEN SPI-DEC-CMI IN THE NORTH TO MTO-EFF IN THE SOUTH IS THE BEST
PLACEMENT. WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS TNGT FOR MOST PLACES AS COVERAGE
WILL BE WIDESPREAD.  EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TO FILTER INTO SPI/DEC/CMI
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH LOWS TEMPS SIMILIAR TO PIA LAST NIGHT
FOR LOWS.

COLDER AIR STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON THU...BUT EXPECT RAIN
TO BE ONGOING EARLY THU BEFORE THINGS TO START TO END IN THE
AFTN.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE CLRG SKIES MOVING INTO CEN
IL THUR AFTN AND NIGHT.  PREFER THE MORE AGREESIVE ETA SOLUTION WITH
THE CLRG AND ENDING OF THE PCPN...AS SHARP END TO THE CLOUD CVR IS
NOTED EVEN TDY OVER NRN IL AND IA.  SO WILL BEGIN A TREND OF ENDING
THE PCPN FROM THE NORTH BY THU AFTN.  DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE
MUCH THU WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND MORNING RAINS AROUND...AND CAA IN
THE AFTN.

CAA REALLY KICKS IN WITH A VENGENCE THU NIGHT AS CANADIAN SFC HIGH
SLIDES SE INTO PLAINS BY FRI MORNING.  SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS CLR SKY AND WINDS
DIMINISHING ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A HARD FREEZE SAT
MORN AND AGAIN SUN MORN.

ONLY THING OF NOTE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE COLD TEMPS AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.

SPI CB 052/059 042/048 030 22+60
PIA CB 050/056 040/045 028 22+40
DEC CB 052/061 042/048 030 22+O60
CMI CB 052/064 045/048 031 22+60
MTO RC 052/064 045/048 035 22++5
LWV RC 058/070 048/051 037 226+5

.ILX...NONE.

KETCHAM

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1110 AM CDT WED OCT 4 2000

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SOMEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS...ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
SOUTH OF I-72. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
1118 AM CDT WED OCT 4 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1000 AM    LOUISVILLE                IL   .88 INCH HAIL
10/04/00   CLAY

MILLER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1155 AM CDT WED OCT 4 2000

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 PM FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
BETWEEN I-70 AND I-72...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH
OF I-70 WITH A BETTER CHANCE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

A 20 MILE WIDE BAND OF 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FROM SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY EAST TO SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MISSOURI WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONT IN
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER
SATURATED GROUND WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA.

HUETTL