Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2000

SFC ANAL SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNADARY HAS COME TO A HALT ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS OF CEN IL...LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF COU TO HUF.  LOW LVL
MOISTURE CONTS TO INCREASE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MID 60 DWPTS
AS FAR NORTH AS STL AND COU. UPR AIR ANAL SHOWS FIRST IN THE SERIES
OF MID LVL S/WV'S ARE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS HEADED FOR CEN IL
TNGT.

ALL THE MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON AN OVERRUNNING PCPN EVENT SETTING UP
FOR NRN MO AND CEN IL TNGT.  ONLY DIFFERENCES ARE WHERE HVYST PCPN
BANDS WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MID LVL S/WV WILL ENHANCE
LOW LVL JET (LLJ) THIS EVENING ACROSS MO.  MODELS SHOW THIS LLJ
FOCUSING ELEVATED MOISTURE FIRST ACROSS NRN MO THIS EVE AND
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO CEN IL BY THE 03-06Z/WED TIME FRAME. MESO-ETA
QPF FIELDS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF OVERUNNING RAINS ALONG THE I-74
CORRIDOR. TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS PLACEMENT.  SO WILL GO WITH A...
SHRA DVLPG BY MIDNIGHT...WORDING IN THE NRN AND CEN ZONE SECTIONS
WITH A CHC POP FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.  CANNOT RULE OUT
THE THREAT OF SVR WX TNGT (SEE SPC OUTLOOK DAY 1) AS LI'S REACH -2
AND LAPSE RATES DECREASE AHEAD OF THE S/WV.  SO WILL KEEP TSRA
WORDING ALSO.

MODELS POINT TO A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER WED MORN...BUT
STILL SOME SCT PCPN AROUND DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. SO WILL KEEP
POPS GOING DURING THE DAY.  LOW LVL JET AGAIN REFOCUSES ACROSS MO
AGAIN WED EVE AS THE NEXT S/WV MOVES ALONG THE RAPID ZONAL FLOW.  SO
WILL HIT THE POPS HARD AGAIN OVERNIGHT WED INTO THU.  ONLY QUESTION
ON WED NIGHT IS PLACEMENT OF HVYST RAINS. PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE CRITICAL WITH ETA FARTHER SOUTH AND AVN FARTHER NORTH WHICH
PUTS RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF IL.  WILL GO LIKELY POPS TO
COVER THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT.

PCPN COMES TO AN END BY EARLY FRI AS THIS POTENT S/WV BRINGS SOME
COLD CANADIAN AIR WITH IT.

EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER COLD WITH A HARD FREEZE COMING TO IL AS
MID/UPR LVL FLOW AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ON THE EAST COAST...WITH RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE ROCKIES.  PREFER THE NOGAPS FOR THE EXTENDED AS MRF
IS MESSED UP BY KEITH REMNANTS.  SFC HIGH PRESS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
LATE FRI...WITH MSTLY CLR SKIES.   NORTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TO THE AREA SAT
AND SUN MORNINGS.  PREFER A COMPROMISE BETWEEN FMR/MEX NUMBERS FOR
LOWS.

SPI RR 056/070 053/063 044 22856
PIA CR 055/065 050/060 040 22846
DEC RR 056/070 053/063 044 22856
CMI RR 057/068 053/063 045 22756
MTO CR 058/071 054/064 047 22767
LWV TT 060/079 058/072 048 22467

.ILX...NONE.

KETCHAM

ILZ027>029-036-037-040>042-047-048-040145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
810 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES
UNTIL 10 PM...

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED FROM THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL
10 PM...PEORIA...TAZEWELL...FULTON...MASON...SCHUYLER...CASS...
MENARD...AND LOGAN.

THE SEVEYRE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES
UNTIL 10 PM.

PLAHMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
1027 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1008 PM    GALESBURG                 IL   59 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
10/03/00   KNOX                           RECORDED AT AIPORT
                                          AUTOMATED WEATHER SENSOR.

FISHER