Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

FCST CONCERNS...
SVR WX EARLY THIS EVE AND HVY RAFL/FLOOD POTNL INTO TNGT...
CHCS OF CNVTN INTO SAT FOR SERN KS...
SVR WX WL AGAIN AFFECT PART OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...THIS TIME
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IMPRESSIVE UPR LO CIRC ACRS
NWRN KS EARLY THIS AFTN AND ASSOCD COLD POOL ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN
VRY UNSTABLE AMS AND SVR CNVTN ALREADY ACRS CNTRL KS JUST S OF SFC
WRMFNT. THIS FEATURE APPEARS MUCH STGR THAN PROGD BY THE MODELS AND
SHUD CONT TO SUPPORT STG/SVR CNVTN INTO THE EARLY EVE AS IT MOVS
ENEWD ACRS NRN KS/ERN NE. QUESTION BCMS HOW THE REMAINDER OF THE
TNGT PD WL PLAY OUT REGARDING ADDTNL TSRA/SVR CHCS. THE MAIN UPR
TROF SEEN ON SATL WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN ACRS THE ROCKIES WAS ALSO
SEEMINGLY UNDERPLAYED BY THE MODELS. THIS UPR TROF WL MOV EWD ACRS
THE PLAINS LATER TNGT/EARLY SAT AND MAY PROMOTE ANOTHER ORGANIZED
CNVTV CLUSTER OF STMS ACRS THE CWA. SOME QUESTION THOUGH AS TO HOW
POSBL STM DVLPMT FURTHER S ACRS THE SRN PLAINS LATER THIS EVE MAY
AFFECT EXTENT/SVR NATURE OF CNVTN LATER IN THE NGT AND THE HVY RAFL
POTNL. CONSIDERING ANTECEDENT HVY/FLOODING RAINS LAST NGT ACRS
HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES AND VRY LO FFG...WL ISSUE A FFA FOR THOSE
COUNTIES TNGT.

SAT...A LRG MCS TNGT ACRS ERN KS/NRN OKLA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
FNT AND RAIN CHCS OUT OF THE CWA FASTER THAN ONE MIGHT XPCT. HOWEVER
WL KEEP A CHC OF TSRA ACRS SCNTRL/SERN KS AT LEAST FOR THE MRNG.
SOME LO LVL DRYING WL TAKE PLACE BHND MID/UPR TROF PASSAGE SAT NGT
INTO SUNDAY. UPR RDG PROGD TO BUILD EWD ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS LATER
SUNDAY INTO MON WITH RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER AIR ALOFT HOWEVER SHUD KEEP THUNDER CHCS
AT BAY...SO WL KEEP FCST DRY SUNDAY/MON.

EXTENDED FCST...THE MRF HAS VERIFIED BEST OF LATE AND WL CONT TO
LEAN TWD ITS FCST SOLN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTS ITS
BIAS OF LATE...IN BEING TOO STG WITH PAC NW S/WVS AND AMPLIFYING
UPR TROFS AS THEY DROP SEWD ACRS THE MDWST. THE LATEST SHORT RANGE
MODELS AT 48HRS ALSO SHOW MORE RDGG AT H5 WITH A WKR INITIAL S/W
MOVG INTO WA/BC WHICH WOULD GIVE LESS CREDENCE TO THE ECMWF. THE
PERIODIC NWLY FLO PTRN ON PERIPHERY OF THE UPR RDG COULD ARGUE A
SLGT CHC OF CNVTN THRUT THE EXTENDED FCST. FOR NOW WL HILITE THE
BEST CHC...ALBEIT SLGT...FOR MON NGT/EARLY TUE.

FCSTID = 13/DARMOFAL
ICT   66  84  60  91 /  30  30   0   0
HUT   64  83  59  91 /  30  30   0   0
EWK   65  83  59  90 /  30  30   0   0
EQA   67  84  59  90 /  30  30   0   0
WLD   67  85  61  90 /  30  40   0   0
RSL   59  82  56  92 /  30  10   0   0
GBD   61  83  57  92 /  30  10   0   0
SLN   63  83  57  91 /  30  10   0   0
MPR   64  83  58  91 /  30  10   0   0
CFV   68  86  61  90 /  30  40   0   0
CNU   68  85  60  90 /  30  40   0   0
K88   68  84  59  90 /  30  40   0   0

.ICT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR KSZ091>092.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
1036 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1000 AM    ANTHONY                   KS   FLOOD
05/26/00   HARPER                         LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          THAT SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS
                                          WERE UNDER WATER. TWO
                                          BRIDGES HAD BEEN WASHED
                                          OUT. THEY WERE SANDBAGGING
                                          AT ANTHONY LAKE. SEVERAL
                                          HOUSES HAD BEEN FLOODED.

CWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
1049 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0115 AM    CONWAY SPRINGS            KS   WIND DAMAGE
05/26/00   SUMNER                         A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER
                                          REPORTED THAT A 7 TO 8 INCH
                                          DIAMETER TREE LIMB WAS
                                          BLOWN DOWN.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-270500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MCPHERSON   RUSSELL     SUMNER   CHASE
HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE      BUTLER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
ALLEN       ELK         LABETTE     NEOSHO      WOODSON
CHAUTAUQUA  GREENWOOD   MONTGOMERY  WILSON

THE SYNOPSIS:
AT MIDDAY LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH
A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG I-70.  STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A COLD
FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  IT IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME...EXACTLY WHEN
OR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
THAT AT LEAST A FEW WILL BE SEVERE.

SPECIAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS ARE PLANNED FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A MORE REFINED OUTLOOK.  AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4 PM.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

HOWERTON

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-270500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
207 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MCPHERSON   RUSSELL     SUMNER   CHASE
HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE      BUTLER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
ALLEN       ELK         LABETTE     NEOSHO      WOODSON
CHAUTAUQUA  GREENWOOD   MONTGOMERY  WILSON

THE SYNOPSIS:
AT EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS...
WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG I-70.  STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.  GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.

THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA.  HOWEVER WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

A WIDESPREAD OR SIGNFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GOLFBALL OR LARGER HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING OVER THE AREA
WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HOWERTON

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-DDHHMM-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
405 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 146.82 AND 145.13 MHZ.

HYSELL