Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2000

ALL EYES ARE ON NORTHCENTRAL OK AND SOUTHEAST KS FOR TSRA INITIATION
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEADILY WEAKENING
CAP DURING THE DAY.  WITH LIFT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS DIVERGENT
LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF UPR JET MOVES OVERHEAD...SHOULD SEE RAPID TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT FROM E OF EMP TO SE OF PNC...POSSIBLY
CONTINUING FURTHER SOUTH IF CAP IS SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED.  PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH HAIL/WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...TORNADO
THREAT WOULD INCREASE WHERE SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY BACK TO S OR
SSE...BEST CHANCE OF THIS IN NE AND NCTRL OK THIS EVENING TO EAST OF
SW OK SFC LOW SUGGESTED BY NGM/AVN TONIGHT.

OF MORE CONCERN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING.  MY EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER SE KS/NRN OK...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW MOVING OR EVEN SEMI-STATIONARY MCS AS DIVERGENT
LEFT-FRONT QUAD OF UPR JET MOVES IN.  ENVIRONMENT WOULD SEEM TO
FAVOR PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY OVER NRN OK
THAT POTENTIALLY "TRAINS" OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. GREATEST THREAT AREA
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD EXCEED 3 OR 4 INCHES...WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WINFIELD TO YATES CENTER...COVERING
MOST OF OUR SE KS COUNTIES.  WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 2.5
INCHES/6 HRS...WILL GO WITH A WATCH FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA.

WILL INDICATE SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST.  LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 40S/50S DEWPOINTS SPREADING SOUTHWARD.  WITH RAINFALL
LATER TONIGHT...THINK LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NGM
MOS GUIDANCE.

SHOULD SEE RAIN END FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW MORNING...BUT COULD
SEE LOW CLOUDS LINGER DURING DAY UNTIL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROF MOVES EAST
OF AREA.  WILL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES.  WILL GO WITH COOLER NGM
MOS GUIDANCE TOMORROW GIVEN TYPICAL WARM BIAS WE'VE BEEN SEEING WITH
AVN MOS TEMPERATURES.

WHILE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TOMORROW EVENING...MAY SEE HIGH
CLOUDS SPILL OVER WEAK RIDGE OVER PLAINS...SO WILL JUST GO PARTLY CLOUDY
TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY.  SHOULD SEE WARM UP WEDNESDAY...WILL
AGAIN GO A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT
NEAR MOS FOR RSL AREA.

WOLF
FCSTID = 19
ICT   54  67  49  79 /  90  40   0   0
HUT   53  68  47  79 /  90  40   0   0
EWK   54  67  49  78 /  90  40   0   0
EQA   54  67  49  78 /  90  50   0   0
WLD   55  67  49  78 /  90  50   0   0
RSL   47  68  47  79 /  80  30   0   0
GBD   48  68  47  79 /  80  30   0   0
SLN   51  67  49  78 /  80  40   0   0
MPR   52  67  49  78 /  80  40   0   0
CFV   60  67  49  77 /  90  70   0   0
CNU   59  66  48  77 /  90  60   0   0
K88   58  66  48  76 /  90  60   0   0

.ICT...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES KSZ070>072...
KSZ093>096...KKSZ098>100.