Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 PM CST WED MAR 15 2000

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE IS PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNT INTO THU. ETA
SEEMED TO HAVE INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER IN OUR AREA...HOWEVER NO
MODEL REALLY STANDS OUT. IN GENERAL...LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG ROCKIES
AND COMES OUT INTO THE PLAINS IN SOUTHEAST CO AND TX/OK PANHANDLES
TONIGHT. BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEARS IT WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST. HOWEVER DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS OVER OUR AREA INTO
THU. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SAT THROUGH MIDDAY THU
AS WELL. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW RAIN THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE FOR
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF FCST AREA. EXPECT THE CHANGE TO SNOW TO START
IN CEN SECTION CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
THE CHANGE OVER IN SCEN KS MAY BE A TAD LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE WORDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CHANGE
WORDING IN SE SECTION TO TOWARD MORNING. SOUNDINGS DON/T SHOW IT
CHANGING OVER UNTIL THU MORNING.

BACKING UP TO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. APPEARS IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN
WARM AIR FLOWING NORTH AND COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH. WINDS AT ICT
HAVE JUST NOW SWITCHED TO THE NORTHEAST. WOULD APPEAR FRONT IS JUST
NOW MOVING THROUGH US AND BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

CURRENT FCST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY LOOK GOOD...HOWEVER MAY
RAISE FCST LOWS FOR RUSSELL AREA ONE CAT. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND
PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO THU. WOULD THINK TEMPS WOULD NOT CLIMB A
WHOLE LOT. WILL LOWER FCST HIGHS TOMORROW TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
MOS. FCST LOWS THU NIGHT STILL LOOK ON TRACK. WILL LOWER FCST HIGHS
ON FRI SLIGHTLY.

MODELS STILL SHOW A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NOW
WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER WILL LEAVE ENTIRE EXTENDED DRY FOR
NOW...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

FCSTID = 7/NRR
ICT   33  39  25  50 /  90  50  10  10
HUT   30  37  26  50 /  90  50  10  10
EWK   31  38  26  50 /  90  50  10  10
EQA   32  40  26  50 /  90  50  10  10
WLD   35  40  26  50 /  90  60  10  10
RSL   26  36  22  48 /  60  30  10  10
GBD   27  36  22  48 /  60  30  10  10
SLN   28  37  25  48 /  70  30  10  10
MPR   29  37  25  48 /  70  30  10  10
CFV   36  42  26  50 /  80  60  10  10
CNU   36  39  26  50 /  80  60  10  10
K88   34  38  26  50 /  80  60  10  10

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-160600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1219 PM CST WED MAR 15 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MCPHERSON   RUSSELL     SUMNER   CHASE
HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE      BUTLER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
ALLEN       ELK         LABETTE     NEOSHO      WOODSON
CHAUTAUQUA  GREENWOOD   MONTGOMERY  WILSON

SYNOPSIS SECTION...

AT MIDDAY...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH OF TOPEKA TO DODGE
CITY.  THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.  NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.  ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWEST OF
A HUTCHINSON...TO WICHITA TO WINFIELD LINE.  AT THIS TIME...
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER TWO INCHES...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

HOWERTON

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-152245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
425 PM CST WED MAR 15 2000

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVnATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 146.82 AND 145.13 MHZ.

HYSELL