Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2000

POTENTIAL FOR SVR WEATHER/FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IS THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SOUTH OF ICT
TODAY ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR/PROFILERS IN CNTRL OK. MODELS SHIFT THIS INTO SE KS BY 00Z MON.
THIS MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL TSRA EAST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN EVENT...HOWEVER...WILL TAKE PLACE LATER TONIGHT. 17Z SFC
MAP INDICATES PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO NW KS...WITH MAIN FRONT BACK
IN WESTERN NE/NE CO. ALTHOUGH LAPS SHOWS CAPPING IN CENTRAL KS...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN NW KS. LAPS SHOWS CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
IN NRN ZONES WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN MOST PREVALENT. THIS EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL MEAN GOOD CHANCE TSRA WILL INITIALLY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

AFTER STORMS FORM...CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST.
WITH CENTRAL/SC KS COME UNDER PROLONGED UPPER DIVERGENCE...TSRA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ENTER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWS 14+ C 85H DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF AN
ICT-CNU LINE...SOUTH WINDS PER PROFILER NETWORK...SUGGEST THIS
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OVER THE REGION. ALSO...MODELS SUGGEST PCPN
WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AS 85H
THERMAL GRADIENT DRASTICALLY TIGHTENS. ALL OF THIS SPELLS WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...AND WITH ETA FORECASTING PW VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE FFA FOR AREA...AND ADD SE ZONES FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. WILL ALSO ADD LINCOLN/RUSSELL COUNTIES IN
NW ZONES...AS IT APPEARS PCPN WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SE ZONES AND ANY PCPN IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WILL END DURING THE MORNING. AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN...EXPECT SOME
CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE.

WITH A NICE SURGE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WORKING TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WILL GO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST LOWS. AS SFC RIDGE PUSHES
EAST TUESDAY...EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS...BUT WITH 85H
THERMAL TROF STILL IN PLACE WILL SHAVE A DEGREE OR SO OFF FWC VALUES
FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

BEGINNING TO GROW CONCERNED ABOUT ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WED. WEAK SHORTWAVES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AS WE STAY IN A W/NW FLOW. 60 HR ETA FORECAST 85H
FRONT TO FORM IN NRN OK...AND 72 HR AVN FORECASTS THIS FRONT TO PUSH
INTO NRN OK/SRN KS AREA BY 12Z WED...WITH 14+C 85H DEWPOINTS POOLING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 30-40 KT 85H SOUTHERLY JET
INTERSECTS THIS BOUNDARY AND 85H BAROCLINIC ZONE FORMS. IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT...CLASSIC HEAVY RAIN SETUP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SRN KS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL INTRODUCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED INTO
ZONES...AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF PCPN WILL DEVELOP
EARLIER ON TUESDAY.

LITTLE CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FCSTID = 12/HYSELL

ICT   69  80  60  80 / 100  30   5  10
HUT   68  80  58  80 / 100  30   5  10
EWK   69  80  60  80 / 100  30   5  10
EQA   69  80  60  80 / 100  30   5  10
WLD   69  80  61  81 / 100  30   5  10
RSL   68  78  55  80 /  80  10   0  10
GBD   68  78  55  80 /  80  10   0  10
SLN   68  78  55  78 / 100  10   0   5
MPR   68  78  55  78 / 100  10   0   5
CFV   71  81  61  82 /  80  80  10   5
CNU   71  81  60  82 /  80  80  10   5
K88   71  81  60  82 /  80  80  10   5

.ICT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE FORECAT AREA.
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.