Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CST THU MAR 23 2000

MAIN PROBLEM IS POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAINS/FLOODING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AM INDICATES THE ELONGATING UPR TROF
MOVING OVER PACIFIC NW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO KICK THE SRN STREAM
UPR LOW (NR EXTREME SWRN NM AT 08Z) EASTWARD. THIS UPR LOW WILL
EJECT OUT TO WRN OK BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN ACCELERATE NEWD
ACROSS KS AND THE REST OF OK TONIGHT. ALL MODELS SIMILIAR WITH UPPER
SYSTEM...PREFERRED ETA FOR FASTER NEWD MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW
TONIGHT...QPF/OMEGA.

FOR TODAY...A SWATH OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT (1.00 - 1.25
IN) WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT UP INTO MUCH OF KS AHEAD OF THE UPR
SYSTEM. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT 200 TO 230% OF NORMAL FOR MID MARCH.
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AS OF 08Z...SHOW A LARGE LINEAR AXIS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS RUNNING FROM WRN PART OF CNTRL KS SWD THRU
WRN OK. AREA IS MOVING N-NEWD. UPR DIVERGENCE INCREASES AND BECOMES
INTENSE OVER CNTRL AND S-CNTRL KS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
PM...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO ERN KS THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT
TODAY APPEARS UNDERNEATH AND JUST LEFT OF LLJ AXIS...WHICH TARGETS
CNTRL AND S-CNTRL KS. AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HVY RAIN LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL/S-CNTRL THIS MORNING INTO AT LEAST
EARLY PM. DEEP SRLY FLOW ON FCST SOUNDINGS ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES. NO AREA IN KS CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER NCEP QPF BRANCH.

2ND AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP OVER SRN OK NEAR TRIPLE
PT LATER TODAY IN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET STREAK...AND NEAR AN
AREA OF RENEWED 850 THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WOULD THEN SPREAD NEWD VERY QUICKLY THRU ERN
OK/SERN KS DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE UPR SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
ACCELERATE NEWD. A PERIOD OF HVY RAIN IS PSBL THIS EVENING IN SERN
ZONES...HOWEVER AREA SHOULD MOVE THRU FASTER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR
AFFECTING CNTRL SECTIONS TODAY. MODELS HINT AT A DRY SLOT WORKING
NEWD ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN KS AFTER ABOUT 03Z TONIGHT WHICH WILL
END HVY RAIN THREAT IF IT OCCURS.

ISSUING FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR CNTRL/S-CNTRL BASED
ON HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AND EXPECTED HVY RAINS. CONCERNED ABOUT
GENERAL COUNTY FLOODING ESPECIALLY OF LOW-LYING AREAS...NR
CREEKS/STREAMS. A FEW MAINSTEM RIVERS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED FLOOD
IN S PARTS OF S-CNTRL KS LATE FRI INTO SAT ACCORDING TO TULSA RFC.

FCSTID = 9/CARUSO
ICT   59  50  66  46 / 100  90  20   5
HUT   58  49  66  45 / 100  90  20   5
EWK   58  50  66  46 / 100  90  20   5
EQA   60  51  67  46 / 100  90  20   5
WLD   60  51  67  47 / 100  90  20   5
RSL   54  44  66  39 / 100  90  20   5
GBD   55  45  66  41 / 100  90  20   5
SLN   56  49  64  43 / 100  90  30   5
MPR   57  50  65  43 / 100  90  30   5
CFV   63  54  70  51 /  60  90  30   5
CNU   63  53  69  50 /  60  90  30   5
K88   62  53  68  49 /  60  90  30   5

.ICT...
KS...FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND S-CNTRL FOR
ZONES KSZ032>033...KSZ047>053...KSZ067>069...KSZ082>083...KSZ091>093.