Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
145 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000

COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO RACE SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS. WX
BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BEEN LIKE STEPPING THROUGH A DOOR INTO WINTER.
11Z ABI 61F/47DWPT 19009KT...18Z 39F/37DWPT 2.5SM-RA 36019G28KT.
AT 18Z FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ADM-NW OF MWL-SJT...THE EASTERN
END OF THE LINE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS N
TX. EXPECT THE WESTERN END OF THE LINE TO CONTINUE SOUTH. WARM
SECTOR OF SFC LOW NE OF JCT AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF LOW SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SE. RUC AND GOES SOUNDERS
INDICATING LI IN THIS SECTOR -7 TO -10 ATTM. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED
TO SEE A SVR WATCH SHORTLY. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST LIFT TO SWEEP
ACROSS SETX TONIGHT AS UPPER VORT LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL HAVE RETURNED TO SETX TONIGHT (PW INCREASE
TO 1.1-1.2"). 500MB TEMPS A CHILLY -16 TO -18 ACROSS SETX AT 06Z.
EXPECTING A LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITH HAIL BEING A
SERIOUS THREAT. MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY BUT WINDSPEEDS ARE ONLY
RUNNING 10-40 KNOTS PER ETA...AVN HAS A STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND
FIELD. WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT. LL WINDS
ARE STRONGLY VEERING BUT ARE WEAK - LOWERING THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES. FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AS YOU
CAN GUESS FROM DISC SO FAR WILL MENTION SVR OVER THE CWA FOR
TONIGHT. NEXT ISSUE IS THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.
INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SETX FRIDAY AS 850 WINDS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH 18Z THEN BECOMING SW. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS SECOND VORT LOBE IN THE WINGS TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THREAT OF RAIN WITH ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING.
850 FRONT NEARS THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING BUT CAA WILL DROPPED OFF.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR MARINE...WILL LOWER THE WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  LATEST
MODELS INDICATING WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

.KHGX...NONE

45/40

PRELIMS
CLL RE 052/059 046/065 046 773
IAH RE 054/063 050/065 049 663
GLS RE 063/065 057/067 059 554

TXZ163-176-195>198-170300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
3 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO
MADISONVILLE TO CROCKETT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND WILL INCLUDE THE CITIES OF
CROCKETT...MADISONVILLE...BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...CALDWELL...AND
BRENHAM.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HILL
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS. A POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK
WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WERE PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT...THE FRONT AROUND MID AFTERNOON WAS FROM NEAR DEL RIO TO
NEAR AUSTIN TO FORT WORTH WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATCH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER AFTER 6 PM FOR
THESE COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STAY IN TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES...WATCHES OR
WARNINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
403 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...AND A STRONG COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.  A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  THE BEST TIMES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT OVER AN AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM
CROCKETT TO HOUSTON TO ANGLETON.  AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST OF THIS
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

STAYED TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTH`ER STATEMENTS OR UPDATES
ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.