Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2000

DEEP ELY FETCH HAS HELPED TO LIMIT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR
WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. ELSE...WIDELY SCT/SCT SH/-TSRA
HAS BEEN THE RULE. OUTFLOWS AND THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE WE WILL
SEE SOME DECREASE OF THIS PCPN WITH SUNSET...WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
POPS HIGH AS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT CONT-
INUES TO WORK IT WAY SOUTH AND THE WAVE IN THE GULF WORKS INLAND.
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN-
PLUS 2" PWS...NO CAP...FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT...SFC BOUNDARY FOR A
FOCUS AND AN INCOMING SPEED MAX AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF
(PER WV LOOPS)- FOR LATE TONIGHT/WED. FROPA (AS IT CAN BE CALLED)
SHOULD BE EARLY WED BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A GRADUAL SHIFT
OF SFC WINDS TO THE EAST, RATHER THAN A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHERLY
FLOW (WHICH MAY BE THE NEXT FRONT ON FRI). OTHERWISE...ON THE EX-
TENDED WILL KEEP THINGS PRETTY MUCH AS IS. THE ONLY OTHER NOTABLE
OF NOTE IS THAT THE ETA AND MESO-ETA ARE THE ONLY MODELS BRINGING
(AND HOLDING) THE FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF. 41/45

.KHGX...NONE

VERY PRELIM PRELIMS...
CLL BB 072/090 070/092 069 562
IAH BE 073/090 070/092 069 462
GLS BE 080/088 078/088 076 462