Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CST FRI NOV 3 2000

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE
FLOODING IS ABATING IN BRAZOS COUNTY...BUT MANY ROADS ARE STILL
BLOCKED IN MADISON COUNTY. WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING TIL 6
AM FOR BRAZOS AND MADISON COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER THAT
WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE 18Z
MESOETA...00Z ETA...03Z RUC...AND 00Z NOGAPS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT
WITH SHIFTING THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS TO CNTRL TX THROUGH 24 HRS. LONG
WV LOOPS SHOW EXTREME MOIST AIR FEED FROM THE TROPICS SEEMS TO BE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WEST...AND 850-500 MB UPPER AIR ANALYSES FROM 00Z
THU/00Z FRI SHOW SLIGHT RIDGING WWRD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO
SERN TX. THE MODELS THEN SHIFT THE FOCUS BACK OVER SERN TX ON SAT AS
THE COLD FRONT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS FINALLY GETS KICKED SEWRD. EVEN
SO...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL/WASHOUT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THUS MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WILL EXTEND THE FFA BOTH IN SPACE ONE ROW OF COUNTIES SE...AND IN
TIME THROUGH TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR THE FAR NWRN ZONES...BUT A MARGIN OF
SAFETY IS WARRANTED.

.KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE
              FROM COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON.
        SCEC COASTAL WATERS 20-60 NM.

31/40/48

PRELIMS...
CLL TR 074/063 072/060 074 +88
IAH TR 079/067 077/063 077 657
GLS WR 080/073 077/070 076 447

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
550 AM CST FRI NOV 3 2000

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO LIVINGSTON...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTHEAST AT U.S. HIGHWAY 59...
INCLUDING METRO HOUSTON...

VERY MOIST GULF AIR...SLOW MOVING BOUNDARIES...AND A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STEER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...RESULTING IN THE STORMS
PASSING OVER THE SAME AREAS AND THUS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.

RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AVERAGED 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA...WITH SOME SPOTS EAST OF BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION POSSIBLY
RECEIVING BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN
BRAZOS...MADISON...AND WALKER COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THESE
AREAS WILL EASILY PRODUCE FLOODING...BUT MANY OTHER AREAS COULD ALSO
FLOOD DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN STORM TRACKS.

LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 59 MAY SEE HEAVY RAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ANY FLOODING SHOgULD BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO
THE TYPICAL LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES AND FEEDER ROADS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS...STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

31/END