Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2000

BREAKS IN CLOUDS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS WRN HALF OF CWA AND SHOWERS
EXITING ERN HALF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS UPR TROUGH APPROACHES WITH HIGHER MID-LEVEL WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPS /850-700 LAPSES AROUND -8.5 THIS EVENING/. WHATEVER
DOES DEVELOP WILL MOVE EAST AND PROVIDE ERN ZONES WITH CHC POPS
EARLY TONIGHT AS THOSE ZONES SHOULD DESTABILIZE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP CHC SHOWERS IN NC MTNS.

SFC LOW TO DEEPEN VICINITY OF NC COAST AS UPR LOW DIGS OFF THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT. UPR COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BUT EAST OF US ON
MONDAY. HIGH RH FIELD FROM SFC TO 700 MB REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY AND A SFC TROUGH LOOPS BACK UP THROUGH FOOTHILLS AND
NRN MTNS. SFC NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN THE AFTN...SO SFC
CONVERGENCE IN VICINTY OF TROUGH MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES NOT STEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. WILL INCLUDE CHC
POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME WRN ZONES.

LOW LIFTS OUT TUESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES LOWEST ON TUESDAY...BUT
WITH MORE SUNSHINE I DONT ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
MONDAY. FOR THE EXTENDED...DRY AND WARM WITH UPR ANTI-CYLCONE
OVERHEAD.

AVL 54/75/53/78/56 3200
CLT 62/78/54/79/58 3300
GSP 61/80/56/80/60 2200

.GSP...NONE.

MOYER

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-282100-
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1115 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAM ENERGY WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

SHOWERS THAT CROSSED THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE MORNING HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT AND CLOUD
COVER WAS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
A PARTICULAR REGION RECEIVES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT OCCURS.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS EAST
TENNESSEE AND GEORGIA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS
RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA STANDS THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS THAT IS WHERE THE MAXIMUM WIND ENERGY AND INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. THIS INCLUDES AREAS FROM ASHEVILLE TO HICKORY AND CHARLOTTE.
BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THIS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

MOYER