Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
430 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

CORRECTED TO REMOVE PARAGRAPH FROM EARLIER DISCUSSION

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE HOW LONG TSTMS WILL LINGER IN ERN
ZONES AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS LAKE MI
ATTM. XPCT THAT IN THE E THINGS WILL END AROUND 22Z AS EXPECTED AND
THAT THE SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OVER THE
MOISTURE DIVERGENT AREA OVER LAKE MI.  THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE THUMB AREA TO NEAR BALDWIN EARLIER TODAY HAS
SHIFTED TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL LINGERS OVER THE
EXTREME E.  WITH CAPES OF 800 WEST TO 2400 TO 2800 OVER JACKSON AND
INGHAM COUNTIES AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY
UNSTABLE.

REST OF THE FORECAST IS BASED PRETTY MUCH ON A QUICK LOOK AT THE MRF
AND ETA MODELS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE NW FLOW AND COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EXPECT THAT WE COULD STILL BE
DEALING WITH A CU FIELD SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD CLEARING AT NIGHT
AND NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF CI. SO SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MRF/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL PROG A SFC LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON
BAY REGION OF CANADA SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY... WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWING THRU OUR REGION. MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
LOOKS LIMITED AND BEST H5 DYNAMICS STAY WELL NORTH NEAR THE SFC LOW.
SO WE/LL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUE AND WED... THE MODELS PROG A SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA PROVINCES OF CANADA. TOUGH TO CALL
HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THAT HIGH WILL HAVE ON OUR WX. IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT... THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TUE
INTO WED AND KEEP US DRY. HOWEVER... THE CANADIAN AND MRF SHOW THAT
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD OUR WAY LATE TUE/WED FROM
THE PLAINS STATES. WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE PRECEDING THOSE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES... WE BELIEVE IT IS A
GOOD IDEA TO MENTION AT LEAST A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FOR BOTH
TUE AND WED.

.GRR...NONE.z

MWH/LAURENS

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-151000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER
OF LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ALONG TO YOUR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS.

HAZARDS...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY ST JOHNS TO KALAMAZOO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HAIL GREATER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER... BUT A FEW WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. STORM CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

DISCUSSION...COLD AIR ALOFT AND WARM MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

AFTE~R TONIGHT... FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

BDM

MIZ067-074-142200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
128 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM
EDT FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     INGHAM AND JACKSON

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
323 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    4 N WILLIAMSTON           MI   .88 INCH HAIL
07/14/00   INGHAM                        0230 PM    4 N WILLIAMSTON           MI   .88 INCH HAIL
07/14/00   INGHAM                         RECEIVED FROM MEDIA
                         k                 METEOROLOGIST

0308 PM    RIVES JUNCTION            MI   .88 INCH HAIL
07/14/00   JACKSON                        REPORT RECEIVED FROM AUTO
                                          PARTS STORE

MJK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    4 N WILLIAMSTON           MI   .88 INCH HAIL
07/14/00   INGHAM

0230 PM    4 N WILLIAMSTON           MI   .88 INCH HAIL
07/14/00   INGHAM                         RECEIVED FROM MEDIA
                                          METEOROLOGIST

0308 PM    RIVES JUNCTION            MI   .88 INCH HAIL
07/14/00   JACKSON                        REPORT RECEIVED FROM
                                          AUTO PARTS STORE

MJK/WDM