Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SW
MI. MAIN SFC TROUGH IS EAST OF HERE... FROM THE THUMB AREA SW INTO
INDIANA. HOWEVER... ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY PIVOTING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z DTX/APX SOUNDINGS
ARE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH LI/S OF -3 TO -8... AND A MODIFIED DTX
SOUNDING FOR T/TD OF 85/68 YIELDS CAPES OF 3400 AND LI/S OF -10.
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS IN THE LOWER 80S.

WHILE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE WITH THE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG/NEAR THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR EAST... CANT RULE OUT OTHER
SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH WITH COLD/DRY POOL ALOFT
AND LINGERING UPPER 60 DEW POINTS. NEXT VORT SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
DROPPING S/SE FROM UPPER MI MAY INDUCE ANOTHER SFC TROUGH AND
PROVIDE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE. OBVIOUSLY BEST CHC FOR SVR WILL BE
IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SE LWR AND WILL ACKNOWLEDGE
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK IN AN UPDATED SPS HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK STATEMENT
AROUND 1130 AM.

.GRR...NONE.
MEADE

WWUS30 KGRR 141149
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
750 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0940 PM    SCOTTVILLE                MI   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/13/00   MASON

0948 PM    2 E SCOTTVILLE            MI   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/13/00   MASON

0950 PM    SCOTTVILLE                MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/13/00   MASON                          LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          TREES DOWN ON HOMES

1030 PM    BITELY                    MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/13/00   NEWAYGO                        LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS
                                          THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
                                          NEWAYGO COUNTY

1030 PM    WALKERVILLE               MI   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/13/00   OCEANA

1050 PM    SWEETWATER TOWNSHIP       MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/13/00   LAKE                           LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          LARGE TREE LIMBS AND LINES
                                          DOWN

0110 AM    SUMNER                    MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/14/00   GRATIOT                        LARGE TREE DOWN

0135 AM    PERRINTON                 MI   .75 INCH HAIL
07/14/00   GRATIOT

CORRECTED TIME FOR LAKE COUNTY REPORT.

OSTUNO

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-151000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2000

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER
OF LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ALONG TO YOUR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS.

HAZARDS...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY ST JOHNS TO KALAMAZOO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HAIL GREATER THAN ONE INCH IN DIAMETER... BUT A FEW WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. STORM CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

DISCUSSION...COLD AIR ALOFT AND WARM MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...

AFTE~R TONIGHT... FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

BDM