Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT THU JUN 22 2000

...TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN CHALLENGES THROUGHOUT THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...

ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP IN EAST CO. AT SAME TIME RIDGE HAS
BUILT CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY (+90 METERS AT LBF AND +50 METERS
AT DEN). VORT MAX IN NE NM AND SE CO COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN 90S AND
DPS IN 50S AND 60S FIGHTING THE RIDGE. QUESTION IS WHEN AND WHERE
WILL MAJOR BREAK-THRUS OCCUR. MAY GET BOX LATER.

MODELS SIMILAR BUT ETA DID BETTER AT INITIATION ALOFT...SPECIFICALLY
IN NW TX AREA. WILL GO AGAIN WITH ETA. MODELS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT
OVER 48 HRS AT SYNOPTIC LEVELS BUT SMALL/MESO S/WS CONSIDERABLY
DIFFERENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT. CONFIDENCE LOW WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF ALL S/WS. AGAIN AM ORIENTING FCST AROUND
ETA.

AS IT DID YESTERDAY ETA SHOWING STRENGTHENING S/W MOVING INTO CWA
TONIGHT FROM WEST...MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS CWA AND NOT EXITING
UNTIL NEAR NOON. SINCE UPPER WIND FIELD SO WEAK AND EXPECT LLJET TO
SET-UP AHEAD OF DRYLINE THINK CHANCE IS GOOD THAT ONCE TSRAS SETUP
IN WEST KS TONIGHT SOME MAY CONTINUE ALMOST THRU THE NIGHT. POSSIBLY
INTO FRI AM IN THE EAST. WILL GO ABOVE GUID ON POPS IN EASTERN
2/3RDS OF CWA. NEAR GUID ON TEMPS (ACTUALLY NEAR GUID ON TEMPS THRU
ENTIRE FCST PD).

FRI UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN SOME AND ANOTHER VORT MAX
INDICATED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SE CO/SW KS/OK AND TX PANHANDLES. HAVE
GONE WITH SIMILAR POPS FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS RH AND PWS REMAIN VERY
HIGH BUT CONFIDENCE IN POSITION OF TRIGGER IS NOT HIGH. THINK
WATCHING WV/IR CHANNELS FOR VORT MAX POSITS MAY BE KEY TO ACTIVITY
FCSTING NEXT DAY OR SO.

COOL FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO AREA LATE SAT BUT APPEARS TO BE GETTING
WEAKER AND TIMING MORE DEBATABLE (WHEN VIEWING SEVERAL MODELS). HAVE
DROPPED POPS SOME SAT AM BUT EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE SAT NITE/SUN AS
FRONT MEANDERS AROUND AREA OF SOUTHERN NEB TO NORTHERN OK.

IN EXTENDED MRF POPS STILL HARD TO DEFEND...ESPECIALLY SUN AND MON
AS MRF GRAPHICS SHOW SFC HIGH IN AREA AND RIDGING GROWING ALOFT. ECM
AT SAME TIME SHOWS WESTERLIES MOVING SOUTH WITH SEVERAL S/WS COMING
ACROSS AREA. HAVE KEPT CHANCE OF TSRAS THROUGHOUT EXTENDED WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS UNTIL MODELS BEGIN TO CLARIFY.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC