Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2000

...CHALLENGES ARE POPS EACH PERIOD AND TEMPS ON SUN...

TSRAS POPPING UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY. WV/IR CHANNEL
SHOWS DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS FROM SW. ALSO
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IN SE CO SHOULD MOVE INTO SW KS SHORTLY. THIS
AREA TO KICK OFF (ONGOING) TSRAS AND THEN MOVE MOSTLY ENE. THINK
CONCENTRATION OF TSRAS TO BE IN S/SE PTN MY CWA TONIGHT AND IN DDCS.
LOTS OF CLOUDINESS MOST OF NIGHT.

AGAIN AT INITIALIZATION ETA LOOKED BETTER ALOFT IN NRN TX AND ALSO
IN DAKOTAS. SEEMED ALSO TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE REP AT SFC. WILL
CONTINUE WITH ETA.

AS NOTED ABOVE VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS SW KS TONIGHT. HOWEVER LOTS OF
MOIST AIR EVERYWHERE IN CWA. ONLY SLIGHT SIGN OF DRYLINE IN FAR NW.
EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND (ACTUALLY DRYING FROM ABOVE) AS
DRIER/SUBSIDIZING TONGUE MOVES INTO NW CWA FROM SW. POPS WILL RANGE
FROM 20 IN NW TO 60 IN SSE.

SAT MODELS SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER SITUATION WITH NO VORT MAX UNTIL
LATE EVENING AND THEN MOSTLY TO SOUTH. WILL GO WITH TEMPS IN 90S
AGAIN AND LOWER POPS FOR LATE IN DAY/NONE IN EAST.

SAT NIGHT COMPLICATIONS BEGIN WITH VORT MOVING NE TO E OF CWA AND
COOL FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PART OF CWA BY MORNING.
TEMPS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT AND POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM NE.

SUN STILL A LITTLE SHAKEY. LOOKS CURRENTLY AS IF FRONTAL SYSTEM
MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA FROM N TO S. INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALL DAY AND POPS AT MAX IN CENTRAL CWA WHERE FRONT SPENDS
MOST OF DAY. ASSISTANCE FROM ALOFT IN FORM OF WEAK 70H TROUGH.
COOLER IN NORTH AND SLOWLY COOLING IN SOUTH AS FRONT PASSES.

IN EXTENDED TROUGH CONTINUES TO ASSIST POSSIBILITIES OF
PRECIP...MORE LIKELY THE SHOWERY TYPE WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOTS
OF UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS. ECM AND MRF HAVE FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT
WHICH INDICATES NW FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SFC HIGH INTO
REGION WITH ENOUGH STRENGTH TO STAY A DAY OR SO. WILL GO WITH DRY ON
MON PM THRU TUE. HIGHS IN 70S AND LOWER 80S. DISSIPATION BEGINS LATE
TUE AND RETURN OF HEAT AND POSSIBILITIES OF TSRAS BY MIDWEEK.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ080-081-240400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
452 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2000

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND A PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT). THE WATCH INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW.

IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...DECATUR...NORTON...
SHERMAN...THOMAS...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...
GREELEY...AND WICHITA.

HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREA
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

BULLER