Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2000

ATTM THE 88D WAS INDICATING SOME TSRA ACTIVITY JUST NW FA AND A FEW
SHRA WERE JUST DEVELOPING OVR THE NNE CWA POSSIBLY ALONG A WEAK COOL
FRONT WHICH SEEMS HAVE STALLED ACRS OUR N FA. ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY
WAS EVIDENT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GLD WHERE TSRA WERE DEVELOPING
RAPIDLY ATTM. I AM LEANING TOWARD THE ETA SOLN WHICH ANALYZED THIS
MORNING PCPN BETTER THAN THE OTHERS AND AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SE I
EXPECT THIS FRONT TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE 5H/HIGH THAT
DOMINATED OUR WX FOR THE PAST WEEK DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST WHICH
ALLOWED SOME GULF MOISTR WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH TO EDGE INTO OUR
CWA.

I EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHRA ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS A MID LVL VORT MAX DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN FA BY EVENING. ALSO OUR
SFC WINDS VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTN ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTR INTO
THE CWA AND K INDE VALUES RISE TO 40C OR ABOVE. IN ADDITION 7H/MB
TMPS COOL AND COMBINING THIS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TSRA SHUD ALSO
INCREASE THIS AFTN MAINLY OVR THE WESTERN FA WHERE THE CAP HAD
ALREADY WEAKENED. AS THE ACTIVITY AND VORT MAX MOVES EAST INTO
INCREASINGLY HIER DEW POINTS AND WITH LOW LVL WINDS VEERING WITH
HGHTS SOME OF THE STORMS SHUD BECOME STRONG IF NOT SEVERE. ALSO
THE HIGHEST 7H/THTE VALUES WERE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
7H/RELH REMAIN HIGH OVR THE EASTERN FA TONIGHT WHERE THE 5H/VORT MAX
DRIFTS INTO AND I BELIEVE TSRA/SHRA WILL CONT OVER THIS AREA.

FOR TOMORROW 850/TMPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND AFTN TMPS MAY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIER TUE THAN MON. IT APPEARS A DRY LINE DEVELOPS
OVER OUR WESTERN CWA AND MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD WHERE FORECAST CAPE
VALUES WERE OVER 2500J/KG OVER THE E FA. ALSO ANOTHER BUT WEAKER
5H/VORT MAX DRIFTS JUST N OF THE FA DURING THE AFTN AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE E FA WHERE
VGP VALUES INCREASE TO .275. A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE NE MAY
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT DRIFTS ACRS THE N FA TEMPORARILY
THEN RETREATS NORTHWARD AGAIN ON SE WINDS BY WED AFTN. 5H/HI REBUILDS
JUST TO OUR SW AND AFTN TMPS SHUD RISE ONCE AGAIN WELL INTO THE 90S.
THE ETA WAS SHOWING A DECREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTR BUT ON SE SFC WINDS
I EXPECT THIS IS UNDER-DOING IT A ISOLD/WDLY TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA.

IN THE EXTENDED 5H/HI CONTS TO STRENGTHEN TO 596 DAM AND WAS JUST TO
OUR SW. AND IF THIS HOLDS TRUE AFTN TMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE
CENTURY MARK OR ABOVE WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

.GLD...NONE.

VP