Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT MON JUL 10 2000

ATTM THE 88D WAS INDICATING SOME TSRA ACTIVITY JUST NW FA AND A FEW
SHRA WERE JUST DEVELOPING OVR THE NNE CWA POSSIBLY ALONG A WEAK COOL
FRONT WHICH SEEMS HAVE STALLED ACRS OUR N FA. ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY
WAS EVIDENT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GLD WHERE TSRA WERE DEVELOPING
RAPIDLY ATTM. I AM LEANING TOWARD THE ETA SOLN WHICH ANALYZED THIS
MORNING PCPN BETTER THAN THE OTHERS AND AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SE I
EXPECT THIS FRONT TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE 5H/HIGH THAT
DOMINATED OUR WX FOR THE PAST WEEK DRIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST WHICH
ALLOWED SOME GULF MOISTR WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH TO EDGE INTO OUR
CWA.

I EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHRA ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AS A MID LVL VORT MAX DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN FA BY EVENING. ALSO OUR
SFC WINDS VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTN ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTR INTO
THE CWA AND K INDE VALUES RISE TO 40C OR ABOVE. IN ADDITION 7H/MB
TMPS COOL AND COMBINING THIS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TSRA SHUD ALSO
INCREASE THIS AFTN MAINLY OVR THE WESTERN FA WHERE THE CAP HAD
ALREADY WEAKENED. AS THE ACTIVITY AND VORT MAX MOVES EAST INTO
INCREASINGLY HIER DEW POINTS AND WITH LOW LVL WINDS VEERING WITH
HGHTS SOME OF THE STORMS SHUD BECOME STRONG IF NOT SEVERE. ALSO
THE HIGHEST 7H/THTE VALUES WERE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
7H/RELH REMAIN HIGH OVR THE EASTERN FA TONIGHT WHERE THE 5H/VORT MAX
DRIFTS INTO AND I BELIEVE TSRA/SHRA WILL CONT OVER THIS AREA.

FOR TOMORROW 850/TMPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND AFTN TMPS MAY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIER TUE THAN MON. IT APPEARS A DRY LINE DEVELOPS
OVER OUR WESTERN CWA AND MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD WHERE FORECAST CAPE
VALUES WERE OVER 2500J/KG OVER THE E FA. ALSO ANOTHER BUT WEAKER
5H/VORT MAX DRIFTS JUST N OF THE FA DURING THE AFTN AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE E FA WHERE
VGP VALUES INCREASE TO .275. A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE NE MAY
INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT DRIFTS ACRS THE N FA TEMPORARILY
THEN RETREATS NORTHWARD AGAIN ON SE WINDS BY WED AFTN. 5H/HI REBUILDS
JUST TO OUR SW AND AFTN TMPS SHUD RISE ONCE AGAIN WELL INTO THE 90S.
THE ETA WAS SHOWING A DECREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTR BUT ON SE SFC WINDS
I EXPECT THIS IS UNDER-DOING IT A ISOLD/WDLY TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA.

IN THE EXTENDED 5H/HI CONTS TO STRENGTHEN TO 596 DAM AND WAS JUST TO
OUR SW. AND IF THIS HOLDS TRUE AFTN TMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND THE
CENTURY MARK OR ABOVE WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

.GLD...NONE.

VP

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-110600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT MON JUL 10 2000

HERE IS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTED INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AND
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR A NORTON KANSAS TO NEAR BURLINGTON
COLORADO LINE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. ALSO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO ACT AS TRIGGERS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

FURTHER A SERIES OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM FAR EAST COLORADO ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THE ABOVE WITH
PLENTY OF MOIST AIR AVAILABLE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILD HORSE COLORADO
TO NEAR SHARON SPRINGS KANSAS TO GOVE AND THEN TO HILL CITY KANSAS.
HAIL TO NEAR ONE INCH AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

RJC

KSZ016-029-102300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MDT MON JUL 10 2000

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
COMBINING THIS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 40S...HEAT INDICES
WILL REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES. THIS AREA OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT
INDICES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LENORA KANSAS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS
LINE.

EFFECTS CAN BE MINIMIZED BY REDUCING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...DRINKING
PLENTY OF WATER OR NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES...AND WEARING LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING.  IF POSSIBLE...SPEND TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED
FACILITIES.

$i$

VP