Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
231 PM MDT SAT JUL 8 2000

JUST WAITING FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE OVR THE SOUTHWEST MTS WITH THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT OF
THETA-E AND CAPE LINES UP FROM KBTM TO KJDN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO NEMONT LATER THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD HOLD IN FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOOTS UP
OVERNIGHT OVR THE SE...THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE SE ZONES.

STAYING WITH THE MESO-ETA SINCE IT HAS HAD A GOOD RECORD WITH THE
EVENTS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

SHEAR ENV LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA WITH COOLING AT 700MB
TO HELP ELIMINATE ANY CAP.

SUNDAY...YET ANOTHER DAY OF SVR WX IN THE SCOPE FOR NEMONT. BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWFA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SHORTWAVE KICKER...ETC...ETC... GOOD SHEAR ENV
AGAIN...LOWER WET BULB ZERO/S TOO.

TEMPS...AROUND GUIDANCE AGAIN LOOKS GOOD.

FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL CWFA FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING...WANT TO SEE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL GO FIRST. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE THIRD PERIOD...HOWEVER
LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION.          PROTON

EXTENDED...UPPER TROF OVER WEST COAST WEAKENS THROUGH THE EXT PERIOD
WITH UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND FLATTENING
UPPER RIDGE OVER NEMONT. THIS WOULD PUT NEMONT IN WESTERLY FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE WESTERN US. MRF
BUILDING A STRONGER RIDGE. THE MODELS HAVE NOT DONE WELL IN MOVING
THE TROF OUT BUT SEE CANDIAN COMING INTO LINE WITH MRF/ECMWF.
WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW EARLY IN THE EXTENED WILL LEAVE CHANCE OF
TSTORMS BUT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST WILL WARM TEMPS UP AND
GRADUALLY DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY. KPB

GGW TTTTT 060/083 060/083 058/083 060/087 061/091 946464/75631
GDV TTTTT 063/085 060/085 061/084 060/088 061/093 946464/75631

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
544 PM MDT SAT JUL 8 2000

TIME (MDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0804 AM    6 NW WIBAUX               MT   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/08/00   WIBAUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
544 AM MDT SAT JUL 8 2000

TIME (MDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0T804 PM    6 NW WIBAUX               MT   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/08/00   WIBAUX