Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
513 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2000

AVIATION DISCUSSION...STG/SVR TSRA WILL BE AFFECTING THE DFW SITES
BY 0030Z. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH 09Z...THEN
SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST NEAR 13Z.

83

314 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2000

MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION DEVELOPING FOR NORTH TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.  LI'S IN THE -8 TO -12 RANGE
WITH CAPES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWN BURST
WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES POSSIBLE FROM DRYLINE STORMS THIS EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.  DRYLINE ALREADY BECOMING ACTIVE WITH LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF 250 MB SPEED MAX ALOFT AND INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE
AREA. APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL TEAM UP WITH COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND
DRYLINE TO THE WEST.  THE LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES...AND OVERRUNNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST AREA. WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE WITH GUIDANCE NEAR 1.5
INCHES.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE OUT.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

DFW   60/73/51/70 7400    ACT   61/83/53/75 6300

.FTW...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH AND EAST OF A BONHAM TO GREENVILLE TO
EMORY LINE TONIGHT.

...75...

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-282200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2000

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THIS INCLUDES
THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX...WACO...TEMPLE...SHERMAN...PARIS...
AND MINERAL WELLS.

THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE TORNADO THREAT IS SMALL THIS AFTERNOON...BECAUSE
OF RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER...AN
EXPECTED ACCELERATION OF LOW LEVEL WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH ABOUT MID-
EVENING.

SURFACE WIND...MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN A ZONE FROM NEAR GRAHAM
TO COMANCHE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG A SLOWING COOL FRONT...JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

BY EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL
OCCUR IN SOME AREAS.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME A THREAT...MAINLY
IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.  EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE ACTIVATED...MAINLY AFTER 400 PM AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER/THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SEE
OKCSPSOKC (NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA)...
OKCSPSTUL (EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS)...NEWSPSSHV
(NORTHBEAST TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS)...SATSPSHOU
(SOUTHEAST TEXAS)...SATSPSSAT (SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS)...AND LBBSPSSJT
(WEST CENTRAL TEXAS).

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-290000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
244 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2000

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THIS INCLUDES
THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX...WACO...TEMPLE...SHERMAN...PARIS...
AND MINERAL WELLS.

THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.  THERE IS A THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF AN EASTLAND...
...MINERAL WELLS...GAINESVILLE LINE. THE WIND PROFILE WAS BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITHIN THIS AREA.  A THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES MAY SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MID-EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING BETWEEN ABILENE AND VERNON AT
MID AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 500 PM...GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

BY EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL
OCCUR IN SOME AREAS.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME A THREAT...MAINLY
IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.  EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE ACTIVATED...MAINLY AFTER 400 PM AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER/THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS FOR ADJACENT AREAS...SEE
OKCSPSOKC (NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA)...
OKCSPSTUL (EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS)...NEWSPSSHV
(NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS)...SATSPSHOU
(SOUTHEAST TEXAS)...SATSPSSAT (SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS)...AND LBBSPSSJT
(WEST CENTRAL TEXAS).