Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2000

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 23, 2000Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 23, 2000, 3:19 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline the Iowa Environmental Mesonet reconstructed for it; the warning itself named whole counties.

The facts

Issued: Jul 23, 2000, 3:19 PM MST (22:19 UTC)
Expired: Jul 23, 2000, 3:45 PM MST
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Whole counties; the outline is the Mesonet’s reconstruction

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 22 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -280 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2267 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 3 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -37 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 30 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KFGZ 232220
SVRFLG
AZC025-232245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
319 PM MST SUN JUL 23 2000

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 345 PM MST

* AT 318 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...ABOUT 10  
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMP VERDE CROSSING INTERSTATE 17. THE STORM    
  WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE 
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A 
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG
BUILDING. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STAY INSIDE AWAY
FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF.

LAT...LON 3452 11208 3445 11200 3451 11194 3456 11201

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 23, 2:30 PM MST, 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 2:30 PM MST, 49 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 23 2000

SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE STATE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE NAVAJO
NATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONV POPPING UP ON THE RIM...WITH ISOLD
ORGANIZED SINGLE CELL STORMS IN SRN YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART BEING DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AS THERE
WAS LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING AROUND UNDERNEATH BROAD ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SW US. A FEW FEATURES OF NOTE THOUGH...A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE
OLE MX BORDER TRACKING INTO SW AZ...ALONG WITH ANOTHER WAVE ROTATING
AROUND MAIN HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN NW AZ. IN ADDITION...THERE WAS A
BROAD AREA OF INERTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...HELPING TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN CENTRAL YAVAPAI
COUNTY.

12Z MODELS DO NOT PROVIDE MANY CLUES FOR THE FCST. RIDGE TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE STATE...WITH A SLIGHT RETROGRADE TO THE
WEST EACH DAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES TO CONTINUE TREND OF ROTATING ABOUT
MAIN ANTICYCLONE AND MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME. THUS
STANDARD MONSOON FCST IN THE CARDS. IN THE EXTENDED...LITTLE CHANCE
ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR WESTERLY FLOW
SCOURING CWA OUT. WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH EXTND. MCGRATH
.FGZ...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 9:30 AM MST, 5 hours 49 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-232030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SUN JUL 23 2000

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
TODAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COCONINO PLATEAU AND
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL REQUESTED.

MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM SELIGMAN TO CHAMBERS IN EASTERN
ARIZONA. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
AROUND 1 PM MST...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS OF
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREATS TODAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO
CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 57 MPH...HAIL 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING OR RUNNING WASHES. WHEN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER BEGINS...IMPORTANT LIFE SAVING INFORMATION WILL BE
PROVIDED IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD WARNINGS
...AND FOLLjOW-UP STATEMENTS.
MCGRATH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 23, 12:28 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	32 min
Jul 23, 1:00 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	30 min
Jul 23, 1:30 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	30 min
Jul 23, 2:12 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	33 min
Jul 23, 4:28 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2000 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2000

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.