Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST SUN JUL 23 2000

SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. FOR TODAY...AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
STATE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE NAVAJO NATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

DISCUSSION...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN WX PATTERN FROM PRVS 24 HOURS.
EXCEPT WE HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...AND THE MID LEVEL
CAP NO LONGER EVIDENT ON 12Z FGZ SOUNDING. ONCE SURFACE HEATING
KICKS IN...IT SHOULD BE EASY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE OFF ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THINK THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS HAS SLACKENED A LITTLE DUE TO
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS FROM PRVS 24 HRS. WIND
PROFILE QUITE WEAK OVER THE CWA...AND MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WHICH FED YSTDYS STORMS NO LONGER EVIDENT...AS THESE WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE SERLY. WEAK SHEAR PROFILE SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY SLOW
MOVING STORMS. 12Z MODELS INDICATED RATHER BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY OVER CWA TODAY...AS MAIN ANTICYCLONE SHIFT SLOWLY TO
THE WEST THIS EVENING. THIS COULD LEAVE TO WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON....
PLAN NO UPDATES. MCGRATH

.FGZ...NONE.

AZZ004>018-037>040-232030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SUN JUL 23 2000

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
TODAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COCONINO PLATEAU AND
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL REQUESTED.

MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM SELIGMAN TO CHAMBERS IN EASTERN
ARIZONA. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
AROUND 1 PM MST...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS OF
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN THREATS TODAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO
CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 57 MPH...HAIL 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING OR RUNNING WASHES. WHEN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER BEGINS...IMPORTANT LIFE SAVING INFORMATION WILL BE
PROVIDED IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD WARNINGS
...AND FOLLjOW-UP STATEMENTS.
MCGRATH