Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
315 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2000

WILL BE BRIEF WITH ONGOING SVR IN LCL AREA. SUBTRPCL CONNECTION WILL
STLL BE A PROBLEM INTO TUE. SHORT TERM PROBLEMS WILL BE SVR PTNL
THRU THIS EVE AND PSBL HVY RAIN THREAT TNGT. HOT TEMPS/PCPN CHCS
LINGER INTO WED.

MID/UPR CRCLN CNTR LFTG OUT OF SE NM PER WV STLT IMAGERY. MODELS
INDC A SHEAR VORT AXIS EXTDG FM THIS FEATURE INTO NW MO MAY BE A BIT
TOO FAR N. THINK IT IS A BIT FTHR S INTO W CNTRL MO PER STLT
IMAGERY. ENHNCD/BLDG CU FIELD EXTDS SW FM CURRENT SVR CNVTN NR KC
METRO THRU TX PNHDL. THINK THIS FETCH OF HIER PW MSTR WILL CONT TO
ADVCT NE TWDS W CNTRL MO...SETTING UP PTNL FOR SOME TRAINING LTR
TNGT INVOF MO RVR...AS SUGGESTED BY 24HR ETA 1000-500MB MEAN RH PROG.
WILL HOLD OFF FFA FOR NOW BUT WILL HV EVE SHIFT KEEP A WEARY EYE FOR
PSBL WATCH. ACTVTY SHUD WKN BY AFTN AS UVV MAX PULLS E. WILL WORD
ZFP ACCORDINGLY. AMT OF RESIDUAL CLNDS/LEFT OVR PCPN WILL HV AFFECT
ON TEMPS. IF CLD FREE UPR 90S SEEM RSNBL BUT WILL TONE DN DUE TO
CLD/PCPN EFFECTS. OVERALL FWC GUID LOOKS GD.

ANOTHER CHC AT CNVTN LT TUE NGT INTO WED AS CDFNT DROPS S THRU IA.
WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS INTO WED NGT FOR NRN MO AS EXTDD PROGS SUG
THIS CDFNT BACKDOORS INTO NRN CWA

EAX...SVR TSTM WATCH #654...TILL 02Z...S OF A SAVANNAH TO KIKRSVILLE
LINE.

JULY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1024 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0740 PM    4 NE WESTVILLE            MO   .88 INCH HAIL
08/06/00   CHARITON                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

JULY

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

FORECAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARYVILLE TO MOBERLY. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM TOPEKA
THROUGH KANSAS CITY TO COLUMBIA IS LIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HIDDEN IN BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF SMALL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL UP TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KANSAS CITY TO BOONVILLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LVQ/JULY

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR HEAT INDEX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
105 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES EXPECTED...

FORECAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARYVILLE TO MOBERLY. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 108
DEGREES.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM TOPEKA
THROUGH KANSAS CITY TO COLUMBIA IS LIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HIDDEN IN BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF SMALL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL UP TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITI@ONAL STRONG
TO SEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KANSAS CITY TO BOONVILLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LVQ/JULY