Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
350 AM CDT MON AUG 7 2000

NRLY STNRY FNTL BNDRY AT 0800 UTC APPRS TO BE ALG CNK TO MCI LN THEN
XTNDS EWRD ALG MO RVR. TO N OF FNT TEMPS COOLING TO LWR/MID 60S WITH
AREAS OF FG FORMING IN SHALLOW INVERSION. MAY INSERT AM FG IN ZFP N
OF BNDRY BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO DECIDE. TO S OF FNTL
BNDRY AMS A BIT WRMR AND UNSTABLE WITH LAPS DATA STIL INDICATING -2
TO -4 LI'S. 88-D HAS SHWN WIDELY SCT -TSRA DVLPG THEN DISSIPATING
LAST FEW HRS. STG THETA-E GRADIENT LIES IN THIS AREA BUT WITH NO
SGFNT LLJ THINK TRANQUIL CONDS SHLD CONT INTO MID/LATE MORNING HRS.
MODELS STILL A BIT VAGUE IN HANDLING SHRT WVS OF MONSOONAL ORIGIN
MVG NWRD THRU UPR RDG PSN. IR/WV LOOPS SHW LATEST FEATURE MVG NEWRD
FM SW KS THIS AM WHICH SHLD BEGIN A MORE EWRD MVMNT THIS AM CLOSE TO
I-70 CORRIDOR IN KS. WITH HIGH THETA-E AIR JUST TO S OF SHRT WV
INGREDIENTS MAY BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RA/TSRA THIS PM AND
ERLY TNGT. NGM QPF/POPS OUTPUT APPRS TO BE ONTO THIS SCENARIO SO
FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN PREPARING AM PKG. STAYED WITH CHC POPS TDY/TNGT
BUT WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TNGT. DID NOT FINESE TIMING IN EITHER FIRST
OR SECOND PRD.

ANOTHER MONSOONAL SHRT WV APRS TO BE ON TAP FOR TUE. ETA/NGM SEEM TO
HAVE HANDLE ON FEATURE WHICH CANADIAN HAS ADVERTISED LAST TWO DAYS.
WILL KEEP CHC POP TUE/TUE NIGHT AND ONCE AGN WILL NOT FINESE TIMING.
ETA SHWS THETA-E RDG MVG TO E TUE NIGHT SO TEMPTED JUST TO INSERT
EVNG POP BUT WILL LET DAY CREW TAKE CLOSER LK.

TEMPS ONCE AGN WILL BE TRICKY THRU FCST PRD. WITHOUT SCT TSRA MID
90S WITHIN REACH. AFTER GETTING CREAMED LAST TWO DAYS WILL STAY WITH
90-95 RANGE S AND NR 90 N WHICH DOES NOT DEVIATE MUCH FM GUIDANCE
CRNT FCST.

MRF A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CD FNT LTR IN WK THAN CANADIAN MODEL.
CAN HINTS AT MORE OF SHALLOW BACK DOOR FROPA ON THUR WHILE MRF KEEPS
UPR R:DG OVR ROCKIES AND DRIVES NW FLW ABV BNDRY LYR INTO FCST AREA.
INSERTED MENTION OF THNDR FOR THUR AND WILL TRIM TEMPS DOWN A BIT
THUR/FRI BUT NOT A LOW AS LATEST FMR GUIDANCE.

EAX...NONE.

BODNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1024 AM CDT MON AUG 07 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0740 PM    4 NE WESTVILLE            MO   .88 INCH HAIL
08/06/00   CHARITON                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

JULY

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

FORECAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARYVILLE TO MOBERLY. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM TOPEKA
THROUGH KANSAS CITY TO COLUMBIA IS LIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HIDDEN IN BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF SMALL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL UP TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KANSAS CITY TO BOONVILLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LVQ/JULY

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR HEAT INDEX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
105 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES EXPECTED...

FORECAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARYVILLE TO MOBERLY. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 108
DEGREES.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM TOPEKA
THROUGH KANSAS CITY TO COLUMBIA IS LIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HIDDEN IN BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF SMALL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL UP TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITI@ONAL STRONG
TO SEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KANSAS CITY TO BOONVILLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

LVQ/JULY