Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 AM EDT TUE MAY 9 2000

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LAST WELL INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND THEN START A DIMINISHING TREND
THAT IS TYPICAL OF THESE NOCTURNAL SYSTEMS. IN THE MEANTIME, MOST OF
SE MICHIGAN WILL GET A GENEROUS HELPING OF RAIN. SINCE THIS MORNINGS
RAINFALL WILL BE ADDED TO BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF STORMS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, CONSIDERED THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. HOWEVER, EXPECT A 4 TO 6 HR BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH, ALONG WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS, WILL GIVE THE
AREA A CHANCE TO RECOVER AND REDUCE THE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. NO HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

AS THE CURRENT ROUND OF CONVECTION DIMINISHES, THE FRONT WILL SETTLE
INTO A POSITION NEAR A LINE FROM PORT HURON TO BENTON HARBOR WITH
OUTFLOW TEMPORARILY VEERING THE WIND TO THE WEST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND
IT WILL JUST WAIT THERE UNTIL THE MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES UP FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER BEING WORKED OVER BY THIS MORNING'S ACTION,
IT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERMIT ANY
NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SURFACE WAVE.

AMONG THE 00Z MODEL RUNS, THE ETA AND NGM ARE CLOSE ON THEIR
HANDLING OF THE GOING CONVECTION WITH TWO MAIN MCV'S SHOWN AT 06Z,
ONE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER AND THE OTHER DOWN OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE NGM HAS THE BEST MAX QPF POSITIONING BY 12Z BASED ON THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. ALL OF THE MODELS BRING THE OKLAHOMA VORT MAX TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS BY 18Z AND THIS COULD TOUCH OFF SOME
NEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF. MODIFIED
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NGM AND ETA ADVERTISE CAPE RUNNING
BETWEEN 2500 AND 2750 J/KG WITH 83 OVER 65 USED AS A SURFACE PARCEL.
THIS MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE OUTFLOW
SETS UP AND CONSIDERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND, BUT LOW CLOUDS
ARE NOT INDICATED ANYWHERE OVER INDIANA, SO SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AROUND DETROIT. THE ACCOMPANYING SHEAR
PROFILES STILL SHOW THE STRONGEST STUFF IN THE LOWER 3 KM INDICATING
BOW ECHO FORMATIONS BUT THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH IN THE 0 TO 6 KM LAYER
TO SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE MAIN WAVE WILL MOVE THRU SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN. WILL MENTION HEAVY AT TIMES AS CONVECTION
FOCUSES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRACKS SW TO NE OVER AREA. THE
EVENT WILL WRAP UP BY NOON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THURSDAY, THE AVN IS
BEEFING UP THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP,
BUT WILL JUST TREND TOWARD MORE CLOUDS FOR NOW.

.DTX...NONE.

BT

***THE NWS IN MICHIGAN IS CONDUCTING A SURVEY TO LEARN MORE ABOUT
HOW OUR CUSTOMERS USE THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD).  PLEASE
COMPLETE THIS SHORT SURVEY AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/AFD_SURVEY.HTM
(ALL LOWER CASE).  THE FEEDBACK WE RECEIVE WILL HELP US PROVIDE
A BETTER PRODUCT FOR YOU.  IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR IF YOU NEED A
PAPER VERSION OF THE SURVEY...CONTACT DICK WAGENMAKER AT 248 625
3309...EXTENSION 766.  THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION.***

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-090800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMER 249 IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNTIL 4 AM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN UNTIL 4 AM EDT. IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS WATCH INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

LIVINGSTON      MACOMB          OAKLAND         ST. CLAIR
WASHTENAW       WAYNE           BAY             GENESEE
HURON           LAPEER          MIDLAND         SAGINAW
SANILAC         SHIAWASSEE      TUSCOLA

A COLD FRONT OUT ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. A DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TO NEAR MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. THESE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE EAST AT 40
MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NHOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET...FOR THE VERY LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

KEYES

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-091100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
200 AM EDT TUE MAY 9 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252 HAS BEEN ADDED TO WATCH 249 WITH BOTH
NOW COVERING ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

MONROE          LENAWEE

THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF MONROE AND ADRIAN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FOR
THE REST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

LIVINGSTON      MACOMB          OAKLAND         ST. CLAIR
WASHTENAW       WAYNE           BAY             GENESEE
HURON           LAPEER          MIDLAND         SAGINAW
SANILAC         SHIAWASSEE      TUSCOLA

AND INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW...BAD
AXE...LAPEER...FLINT...PORT HURON...AND THE DETROIT METRO AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST OVER THE
AREA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH AND HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. THE SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF A TORNADO ALSO EXISTS...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILDL
BE FROM STRAIGHT LINE WIND AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE
EAST AT 40 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE VERY LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION...OR TUNE IN YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET.

BT

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-091100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
329 AM EDT TUE MAY 9 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM FOR
MONROE AND LENAWEE COUNTIES...WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
249 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM FOR LIVINGSTON...ST.
CLAIR...OAKLAND...MACOMB...WAYNE....AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES.

AT 330 AM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE RAPIDLY
THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH 7 AM... WITH SOME CAPABLE OF PROD5UCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE EAST
AT 40 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE VERY LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION...OR TUNE IN YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET.