Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
950 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2000

BIG QUESTION THIS EVENING WAS HOW MUCH THE CAP OVER SE LOWER HAD
ERODED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING AT APX SHOWED THE CAP PRETTY MUCH
GONE AND THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THE CAP HAS ERODED A LITTLE... BUT STILL IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FIRING. IN FACT... THE CAP IN THE
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM IS JUST AS STRONG AS IT IS OVER SE LOWER. 700MB
TEMPERATURES AT ILX ARE 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN OVER SE LOWER AND THIS
WILL JUST RE-ENFORCE THE CAP. HOWEVER... TEMPERATURES AT 500MB AT
ILX ARE 4 DEGREES COLDER THAN HERE. AS THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN LATER TONIGHT THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. BELIEVE THAT
ALL THIS POINTS TO MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BEING CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA... WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

.DTX...NONE.

KEYES

***THE NWS IN MICHIGAN IS CONDUCTING A SURVEY TO LEARN MORE ABOUT
HOW OUR CUSTOMERS USE THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD).  PLEASE
COMPLETE THIS SHORT SURVEY AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX/AFD_SURVEY.HTM
(ALL LOWER CASE).  THE FEEDBACK WE RECEIVE WILL HELP US PROVIDE
A BETTER PRODUCT FOR YOU.  IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR IF YOU NEED A
PAPER zVERSION OF THE SURVEY...CONTACT DICK WAGENMAKER AT 248 625
3309...EXTENSION 766.  THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION.***

KEYES

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-091200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
842 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN TO WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE LOWER
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY WILL BE APPROACHING
SAGINAW BAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT AND SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY
MOVE EAST AT 40 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET...FOR THE VERY LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

KEYES

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-090800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 8 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMER 249 IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNTIL 4 AM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN UNTIL 4 AM EDT. IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS WATCH INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

LIVINGSTON      MACOMB          OAKLAND         ST. CLAIR
WASHTENAW       WAYNE           BAY             GENESEE
HURON           LAPEER          MIDLAND         SAGINAW
SANILAC         SHIAWASSEE      TUSCOLA

A COLD FRONT OUT ON LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. A DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TO NEAR MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. THESE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE EAST AT 40
MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NHOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET...FOR THE VERY LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

KEYES