Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2000

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIP THREAT AND SEVERITY.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT AGAIN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH
QPF FIELDS IN FIRST 06-12 HOURS. FOLLOWED MAINLY THE ETA.

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

STORMS FIRING IN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVEL JET.
LLJ JET AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE FOCUS OVER MINNESOTA TODAY. COLD
FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
AND IS FORECAST TO CLEAR DLH BY 00Z. UPPER JET...WITH CORE OVER
100KT RIDES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BEST DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION TO GIVE NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEST SHOT AT PRECIP TODAY.
MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS IN THEIR QPF. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS NORTH
AND LEAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WITH LIFTING FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW.

PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES TODAY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 IN IA. SEVERE THREAT TO HINGE ON INSTABILITY
REACHED. CURRENT ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN
STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST FEW SCANS. WITH THIS COMPLEX AND
INCREASING CLOUDS...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE SEVERE MENTION OUT OF ZFP.

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND ON
TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

.DLH...NONE.

MELDE

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-142000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2000

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THREAT...
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PARK RAPIDS TO
AITKIN TO NEAR HINCKLEY IN MINNESOTA...AND TO SIREN IN WISCONSIN.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

DISCUSSION...
AS OF NOON...THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS WEAKENED
AS THEY MOVED INTO THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...A FEW OF THE STORMS DID PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN CASS COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND ALSO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH INTO THE AREA WILL HELP INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...THEN SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP CONDITIONS STABLE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TAP