Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2000

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIP THREAT AND SEVERITY.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT AGAIN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH
QPF FIELDS IN FIRST 06-12 HOURS. FOLLOWED MAINLY THE ETA.

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

STORMS FIRING IN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVEL JET.
LLJ JET AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE FOCUS OVER MINNESOTA TODAY. COLD
FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH YESTERDAY LIFTS NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
AND IS FORECAST TO CLEAR DLH BY 00Z. UPPER JET...WITH CORE OVER
100KT RIDES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BEST DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION TO GIVE NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEST SHOT AT PRECIP TODAY.
MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS IN THEIR QPF. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS NORTH
AND LEAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. CAN/T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WITH LIFTING FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW.

PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.75 INCHES TODAY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 IN IA. SEVERE THREAT TO HINGE ON INSTABILITY
REACHED. CURRENT ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN
STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST FEW SCANS. WITH THIS COMPLEX AND
INCREASING CLOUDS...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE SEVERE MENTION OUT OF ZFP.

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND ON
TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

.DLH...NONE.

MELDE

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-142000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
930 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

THREAT...
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALVWOOD AND
MARCELL IN ITASCA COUNTY...SOUTHEAST THROUGH HIBBING AND TWO
HARBORS...AS WELL AS ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING. THIS WAS DUE TO THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER
THE AREA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME SMALL HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND ALSO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTH INTO THE AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM DESTABILIZING ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS
LIMITING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TAP