Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2000

SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT.

THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. SPC MODERATE RISK AREA RUNS FROM WALKER TO
DLH TO RHI. AGREE THAT THIS AREA LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE. ISOLATED STORM NOW FIRING IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE ABLE
TO GET GOING RIGHT AWAY...BUT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A BUSY
NIGHT. LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

WILL GO WITH THE ETA...WHICH INITIALIZED THE BEST THIS MORNING.
ETA/MESO APPEAR TO HAVE A FAIR HANDLE ON THE AREA OF CONVECTION. ETA
FORECASTS A SURGE OF HIGH PW AIR (1.88 INCH) TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
LIFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER LEVEL JET AND WEAK PVA SHOULD ALSO
PROVIDE NECESSARY LIFT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. THE AIR SOUTH OF
THE FRONT IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WITH LI OF -12C ON MSAS AND
WEAKENING CAP.

WILL CARRY THE SEVERE WORDING INTO THE EVENING AND ELABORATE ON MAIN
THREATS. NEXT PROBLEM IS FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER BRD AREA WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
TONIGHT. AREAS JUST NORTH OF THERE REMAIN SATURATED FROM NEARLY 4
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT...AND WITH LOW FFG VALUES...DECIDED TO
CARRY IT THIS FAR WEST. MUCH OF NW WISCONSIN HAS A PRETTY SERIOUS
THREAT OF FLOODING. MANY AREAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING ALREADY FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENT.
WILL ALSO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA.

THINGS IMPROVE AFTER TONIGHT...WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING. MAINLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

ETA SURFACE TEMP FORECASTS APPEAR REASONABLE...AND HAVE FAVORED OVER
FWC/MAV TEMPS.

.DLH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH MN ZONES 33>36 AND 38...WI ZONES 3...4
       AND 6>9 TONIGHT.

DAP

WIZ003-004-009-090345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1017 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 553 FOR ASHLAND...IRON AND PRICE
COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN BEEN CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR
ASHLAND...IRON AND PRICE COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MORE
THUNDERSTOhRMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

SHIMON