Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT WED AUG 9 2000

TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM STILL LINGERING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.  SFC ANALYSIS HAS TROF FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WHERE CU WAS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.  SFC
FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. TROPICAL PLUME
REMAINS VISIBLE FROM SAT PIX AND 12Z ANALYSIS.  THINK MAIN CHALLENGE
WILL BE TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONT COMES SOUTH AND
INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING THE UPPER TROPICAL VORT AND
MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY WEST NEXT 48 HOURS.  IN THE MEAN TIME...THEY
BRING FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT THROUGH CWA.
AT THIS TIME...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON 18Z SFC ANALYSIS WITH
VERY MINIMAL PRESSURE RISES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WINDS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT...GOING TO GO WITH 30 POPS FOR WEST BASED ON MODEL
POSITION OF UPPER VORT.  WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF SYSTEM.
THINKING OF 20 POPS OR LESS FOR CENTRAL AND EAST AS WHATEVER
DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE MUCH IN THIS WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT.
WILL PROBABLY KEEP SAME POPS GOING FOR ALL AREAS FOR THURSDAY AS
THINGS SHOULD LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY.  GOING TO CUT HIGH TEMP
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND WEST AS WE SHOULD HAVE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS/PRECIP THOUGH WE COULD HAVE SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS.  WILL
ALSO GO WITH 30 POPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY FOR WEST WITH LOWER POPS
FOR REST AS VORT SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH AND APPEARS THAT TROPICAL
CONNECTION SHOULD REMAIN.

EXTENDED...

MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH SFC BOUNDARY NEAR
WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AND THEN SLOWLY MOVING
BACK EAST. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A SLT CHC MENTIONED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD WITH BEST WEST/SOUTHWEST
FLOW NORTH OF THE AREA. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND OVER
WESTERN KANSAS PRESENT ON SAT WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME BUT
TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
STILL APPEARS NO STRONG DOWNSLOPE WARMING DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY SO AM OPTING TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING 100
DEGREE TEMPS AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 069/094 069/096 069 111
GCK 067/093 068/096 068 221
EHA 069/090 068/093 068 333
LBL 070/094 070/095 070 222
HYS 069/096 070/097 070 020
P28 070/098+ 070/099 070 -00

.DDC...NONE.

REITER/BURGERT