Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS MAINLY POPS THOUGH ALL PERIODS.

12Z UA MAPS SHOWED H5 HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CONUS CONTINUING TO BUILD
NORTHWARD. 7H TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS CELSIUS WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR WARM AND MOIST SCENARIO
AT 8H WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED RANGE OVERSPREADING MOST
OF THE OBS TO THE RIGHT OF A FGZ TO ILX TO NEW LINE. 19Z SFC OBS
INDICATE DRYLINE HAS SURGED EAST TO ROUGHLY A MCK TO CAO LINE.
CU/TCU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED NICELY ALONG THIS LINE WITH MORE TCU
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE LIKELY DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT ITR AND
LIC.

WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE QUITE JUICY AND VERY LITTLE CAP LIKELY IN
PLACE AT THIS TIME, ANY DECENT FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD PRODUCE
PRECIP. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE SHEER (19Z GRANADA
PROFILER HAD WINDS <5KTS UP THROUGH 5H) SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF ALL BUT THE
WESTERN CWA. DON'T SEE ANY REASON WHY A REPEAT OF MORNING STRATUS
SHOULDN'T DEVELOP FOR AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

NEXT FORCING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE A WEAK 7H WAVE AND 5H VORT MAX,
PER ALL NCEP MODELS AND CANADIAN, DUE TO ENTER EASTERN COLORADO
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY 00Z WED. THIS FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BUT COULD BE THE VORT MAX NOW EXITING
BAJA. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN YESTERDAY
EVENING'S. ETA AND NGM ALSO INDICATE GOOD 3H DIVERGENCE IN EASTERN
COLORADO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS SOUTHERN BRANCH TRIES TO GO OVER
THE RIDGE. CONVECTION MAY FIRE AGAIN BY 21Z IN THE WEST WITH PVA AND
THE DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY AND WILL INCLUDE AFTERNOON POPS HERE.
WAVE MAY HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP PRECIP GOING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP.

LITTLE THERMODYNAMIC CHANGES SEEN FOR TUESDAY WITH WARM AND MOIST
LOWER LEVELS. WESTERN KANSAS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AS 5H
HIGH IS RELUCTANT TO COME OVERHEAD. SHOTS OF ENERGY ARE LIKELY TO BE
SOMEPLACE IN THE FLOW BUT DON'T FEEL ADDING SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED
AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS, WILL KEEP SIMILAR NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT IN HIGHS AND LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST SFC DEWPOINTS KEEPING LOWS
THE WARMEST AND HIGHS THE COOLEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS
SEEM REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ALL MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS AGREE ON VARIOUS
ADAPTATIONS OF A HUGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AFTER MID
WEEK THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A HOT AND DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT
THE EXTEND PERIODS AND PROBABLY BEYOND. NUMERICAL MRF GUIDANCE
TRENDS TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALSO LOOK QUITE REASONABLE AND WILL THUS FOLLOW CLOSELY. IN ESSENCE
THIS FORECAST WILL SIMPLY BE AN EXTENSION OF THE ONGOING EXTENDED.

PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 069/094 069/095 069 --2
GCK 067/095 067/096 067 112
EHA 067/096 066/096 065 423
LBL 068/095 067/096 066 -12
HYS 068/096 067/097 067 002
P28 071/093 071/094 070 002

.DDC...NONE.

POAGE/JOHNSON